全球花生贸易格局演变及政策启示Evolution of global peanut trade pattern and policy implication

基于贸易网络和拓扑学原理，利用1999、2004、2009、2014年和2019年全球花生贸易截面数据，采用社会网络分析方法，探究1999—2019年全球花生贸易网络演变特征及对中国花生对外贸易政策的启示。结果表明：全球花生贸易伙伴国家之间直接交易路径在不断缩短，全球花生贸易核心国家在已有稳定成员的基础之上逐渐向多元化方向发展；中国、美国和荷兰是1999—2019年世界重要的花生贸易枢纽国，中国拥有较强的独立开展花生出口贸易能力，但开展花生进口贸易时受其他国家的约束力度仍较大；中国花生进口量短时间内不会出现大幅度回落，贸易风险不断增大；基于中国花生出口贸易格局的多元化趋势，国内花生产业面临挑战与机遇并存的局面。据此建议，充分发挥中国在全球花生贸易市场中的中介影响力，积极开展花生双边及多边贸易合作；对中国花生的重要、传统和潜在出口市场实施不同的出口策略；相关部门可为中国花生进口渠道多元化提供必要的政策和信息支持。 Based on the principles of trade network and topology, and the cross-sectional data of global peanut trade in 1999,2004,2009,2014 and 2019, the social network analysis method was used to explore the evolution of global peanut trade network in 1999-2019 and its policy implications for peanut trade in China. The results showed that the direct trade routes between peanut trading partner countries were becoming shorter and shorter, and the core countries of global peanut trade were becoming more and more diversified.China, United States and Netherlands were the world’s important peanut trade hub countries in 1999-2019.China had a strong independent ability to carry out peanut export trade, but the import trade was still subject to greater constraints by other countries. China’s peanut import volume would not drop significantly in a short period of time, and the trade risks were increasing. Based on the diversification trend of China’s peanut export trade pattern, the domestic peanut industry was facing both challenges and opportunities. Based on the above conclusions, it was proposed that we should give full play to China’s intermediary influence in the global peanut trade market, actively carry out bilateral and multilateral trade cooperation, implement different export strategies to China’s important, traditional and potential peanut export markets,and the relevant authorities should provide the necessary policy and information support for the diversification of China’s peanut import channels.