Evaluating the Dynamic Carrying Capacity of Water Resources Using the Five-variable Gravitation Subtraction Set Pair Potential Method

【Background and Objective】 Carrying capacity of water resources is an important parameter to measure sustainability in regional water resources use, and objectively evaluating its variation and vulnerability can improve water resources management. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the dynamic carrying capacity of regional water resource, identify and diagnose its vulnerability. 【Method】 Considering significance of the components of five-variable connection numbers and the difference in influence degree of the set on the system situation, and referring to the universal gravitation and damping, a five-variable gravitation subtraction set pair potential model based on the connection numbers was constructed. The model was then applied to evaluate the dynamic water resources carrying capacity in Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces, and the results were compared with the existing five-variable subtractive set pair potential. 【Result】 Overall, the bearing capacity of water resources in Sichuan province has seen improvement good. Based on the impact of the subsystems, their evaluation index was ranked in the order of ecological environment > social economic> water resource. Subsystems that were persistently potential or partial against-potential are vulnerable, and vigilance over them is thus required. In general, water bearing capacity in Heilongjiang is good, in which “rain” “service industry” are potential of “water production capacity”, while “population density”, “primary industry” are inverse potential. The five-variable gravity subtraction set of potential discrimination system set pair potential value and situational and five-variable subtraction set pair potential calculation results are basically identical, and on the diagnosis, identify vulnerability subsystem and index is more sensitive and effective. 【Conclusion】 Analysis of water resources carrying capacity evaluation, five-variable gravity subtraction sets for system development and diagnosis, identify the potential vulnerability subsystem and the index of the rationality and applicability of the constructed gravity subtraction of set pair potential of five-variable more conform to the calculation results and the actual physical meaning, and simple calculation, strong explanatory. A new set-to-potential method is provided for analyzing dynamically and evaluating the multi-level set pair system.