FACTORS AFFECTING INDONESIAN ARABICA COFFEE EXPORT

The purpose of this study is to analyze the development of Indonesian coffee exports, coffee export prices, Indonesian coffee production and consumption, the rupiah exchange rate (exchange rate) in the international market, and analyze the factors that influence the supply of Indonesian coffee exports. The data analysis method used is descriptive method and quantitative method. The quantitative method used to analyze the factors that affect the volume of Indonesian coffee exports in the short term is the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. The result of showed that the development of Indonesian coffee exports in 1990-2020 showed fluctuations in both the volume, value, and price of Indonesian coffee exports. Based on the results of the analysis using ECM, it was found that the supply of Indonesian coffee exports in the short term was significantly influenced by coffee production and had a positive effect. Meanwhile, Indonesia's coffee export supply in the long term is significantly influenced by coffee production and international coffee prices and the effect is positive. Meanwhile, only in the long term, coffee export prices have a significant negative impact on Indonesia's coffee export supply. The implications of policies that can be taken by the government to maintain or increase market share in conditions of increasingly fierce competition are that coffee productivity must be increased (reduce production costs) so that the relative price of Indonesian coffee is cheaper and in the end the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee exports can increase. In addition, there is a need for a policy of diversifying coffee products into processed coffee through the use of post-harvest technology so as to create added value for coffee to overcome fluctuations in domestic and international coffee prices.