AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FISH FOOD SECURITY IN EGYPT

The problem of fish food security is represented in insufficient strategic stocks of fish, especially in light of the increasing demand for fish, and lower production than consumption. The research mainly targeted the study of the situation of fish food security in Egypt, in addition to a set of sub-goals, which are the most important that the estimation of both the strategic stock of fish and fish food security coefficient in Egypt, studying of the most important factors affecting fish food security, studying of future expectations for fish food security, This is in addition to studying the problems that Obstruct the continued increase in fish production. The research relied on achieving goals on the use of qualitative statistical methods and economic equations for estimating both strategic stocks and security coefficient for fish. As Quantitative statistical methods were used, which are represented in using the simple and multiple regression method to estimate the functions of consumption, production, import and export of Egyptian fish, as well as food security coefficient in order to determine the most important variables that affect it by building an econometric model that explains the determinants of food security of fish. The double logarithmic model was the best model used in terms of economic logic and statistical significance, and Autoregressive and Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast production, consumption, imports and food security coefficients for fish until 2025. In addition to using the statistical method, One-way Anova- Analysis of Variance, to test the differences between a number of independent groups that represent problems that impede the continued increase in fish production, as well as the use of the least significant difference method (L.S.D) to arrange the elements of each problem. By estimating the growth rate of fish production and consumption, the fish food gap and the average per capita share, it was found that the growth rate of each of them took an increasing general trend during the study period, where the annual growth rate is estimated at 5.4%, 4.9%, 2.8%, and 2.7% for each of them, respectively. It was also found that the quantity of the surplus in fish attained about 0.9 thousand tons on average during the study period, and this surplus is very small, not enough consumption per day. It is also clear that the fish food security coefficient reached about 0.00073 on average during the period (20002018) and this indicates a decrease in the fish food security rate. The forecast values of the fish food security coefficient have shown that the fish food security coefficient tends to decrease from about 0.00076 in 2019 to about 0.00073 in 2025. And by studying the most important variables that affect fish food security in Egypt through the three basic functions, which are the fish demand function, the fish supply function, and the fish food security coefficient function, of the Simultaneous model, according to the economic logic and statistical significance, Increase in both national income (x13), imports of fish (Y3t), local production of fish (Y1t) by 1%, the food security coefficient of fish increases by 0.04%, 0.102%, 0.49% for each of them respectively, and when increasing Consumption (Y2t) by 1%, the fish food security coefficient decreases by 0.67%. This has proven the significance of the variables at the level of significance 0.01, as it turns out that by increasing exports (Y4t) by 1%, the food security coefficient decreases by 0.01% and this decrease is statistically significant at the  level of significance 0.05. A stratified random sample was chosen according to the cognitive and functional level, with the problems and obstacles of continuation of increasing fish production in Egypt. The sample was of those interested in the field of fish wealth. The problems were identified and divided into five categories which are: environmental problems, financing and production problems, marketing problems, problems related to scientific research, administrative problems. The study resulted in several recommendations, the most important of which are: Increasing the expansion of culture operations in floating marine cages. Increasing investment orientation for fish production from its various sources and providing financial support to small fish producers. Close control of the various pollution image processes of natural resources, overfishing, offensive fishing, and fishing fry and limiting their spread to preserve biological stocks.