Modelling Floodplain Vegetation Response to Groundwater Variability Using the ArcSWAT Hydrological Model, MODIS NDVI Data, and Machine Learning

This study modelled the relationships between vegetation response and available water below the soil surface using Terra’s moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and soil water content (SWC). The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interface known as ArcSWAT was used in ArcGIS for the groundwater analysis. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in SWAT-CUP software using 10 years (2001–2010) of monthly streamflow data. The average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency during the calibration and validation was 0.54 and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model performances were good. Nineteen years (2002–2020) of monthly MODIS NDVI data for three different types of vegetation (forest, shrub, and grass) and soil water content for 43 sub-basins were analysed using the WEKA, machine learning tool with a selection of two supervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The modelling results show that different types of vegetation response and soil water content vary in the dry and wet seasons. For example, the model generated high positive relationships (r = 0.76, 0.73, and 0.81) between the measured and predicted NDVI values of all vegetation in the sub-basin against the groundwater flow (GW), soil water content (SWC), and combination of these two variables, respectively, during the dry season. However, these relationships were reduced by 36.8% (r = 0.48) and 13.6% (r = 0.63) against GW and SWC, respectively, in the wet season. Our models also predicted that vegetation in the top location (upper part) of the sub-basin is highly responsive to GW and SWC (r = 0.78, and 0.70) during the dry season. Although the rainfall pattern is highly variable in the study area, the summer rainfall is very effective for the growth of the grass vegetation type. The results predicted that the growth of vegetation in the top-point location is highly dependent on groundwater flow in both the dry and wet seasons, and any instability or long-term drought can negatively affect these floodplain vegetation communities. This study has enriched our knowledge of vegetation responses to groundwater in each season, which will facilitate better floodplain vegetation management.