Price flexibility of world market for cocoa beans
2009
Pavel Syrovátka
The article is focused on the quantitative analysis of the price flexibility of the world market for the cocoa beans. The ICCO databases from 1960/1961 to 2005/2006 crop years were used for this analysis. In the investigated time period, the analysis of the price flexibility was based on the autoregressive form of the price model with the log-linear construction: lnpt = 2.6824 − 0.4041 × lnstgt + 0.8301 × lnpt−1 + ut. The values of the parameters of the autoregressive price model were estimated using OLS. The developed model was statistically significant in all evaluated respects (F-test, T-tests and Durbin’s h-test). Within the analysis of the world market for the cocoa beans, the current, dynamic, long-term and long-equilibrium coefficients of price flexibility were evaluated. According to applied log-linear construction of the autoregressive price model, the level of the current price flexibility of the world market for the cocoa beans was −0.4041, the dynamic price flexibility of the first order achieved the value of −0.3354 and the long-equilibrium price flexibility of the world market for the cocoa beans takes the value of −2.3784.
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