Tracking Land-use Trajectory and Other Potential Drivers to Uncover the Dynamics of Carbon Stocks of Terrestrial Ecosystem in the Songnen Plain

Land-use change is an important factor affecting terrestrial carbon balance, and it is crucial to explore the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to land-use change, especially in the Songnen Plain, which faces a fierce conflict between the rapid growth of production activities and ecosystem degradation. In this study, we measured soil organic carbon and vegetation biocarbon stocks in the Songnen Plain based on IPCC-recommended methodologies, and explored the characteristics of carbon stock changes in land-use trajectories, land-use drivers, and specific land-use change scenarios (cropland cultivation, returning cropland to forests, the expansion of land for construction, deforestation, greening, and land degradation). The results showed that soil organic carbon stock in the Songnen Plain decreased by 1.63 × 10⁵ t, and vegetation biocarbon stock increased by 2.10 × 10⁷ t from 2005 to 2020. Human factors and natural factors jointly contributed to the land-use change, but the extent of the role of human factors was greater than that of natural factors. The increase in land-use trajectory led to the decrease in soil organic carbon stock and the increase in vegetation biocarbon stock. There was no difference in the effects of human-induced and natural-induced land-use changes on vegetation biocarbon stocks, but the effects on soil organic carbon stocks were diametrically opposite, increasing by 43.27 t/km² and decreasing by 182.02 t/km², respectively. The reclamation of arable land, returning cropland to forests, and greening led to a net increase in terrestrial carbon stocks (+813,291.84 t), whereas land degradation, deforestation, and land-use expansion led to a decrease in terrestrial carbon stocks (−460,710.2 t). The results of this study can provide a reference for the adjustment of land-use structure and the increase in terrestrial carbon stock in the Songnen Plain.