Prospective life cycle assessment targeting the dual-carbon strategy: Progress review and methodological framework
2023
ZHANG Bingqian, GAO Hanbo, TIAN Jinping, CHEN Lyujun
In order to achieve the “dual carbon” goals, it is of great significance to evaluate the potential environmental impact of emerging technologies and make decisions in the early stages of technological development to reduce energy consumption and environmental impact throughout the entire life cycle of these technologies. Life cycle assessment can analyze the potential environmental impact of a product or service throughout its life cycle. Prospective life cycle assessment has been proposed to evaluate emerging technologies that are uncommercialized. This study analyzed relevant definitions of life cycle assessment, reviewed articles on prospective life cycle assessment both in China and internationally, and used bibliometric methods to explore the status of prospective life cycle assessment research in terms of research trends, objects, and key fields. Considering the four challenges associated with the method, including low comparability, nonlinear scale amplification, limited data availability, and high uncertainty, a comprehensive framework for prospective life cycle assessment has been proposed. This article also discussed the difficulties and challenges of using prospective life cycle assessment in research in China and provides suggestions for future improvement and application prospects. This study provides a reference for the localization application of the method in China, help the development of carbon reduction technology innovation, and coordinate pollution reduction. It can also help us identify product and supply chain hotspots from a systematic perspective, adopt targeted adjustments, avoid the transfer of environmental pollution burden, and achieve the “dual carbon” goals with a lower cost and environmentally friendly path.
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