The Metabolic Profile of Young, Watered Chickpea Plants Can Be Used as a Biomarker to Predict Seed Number under Terminal Drought

Chickpea is the second-most-cultivated legume globally, with India and Australia being the two largest producers. In both of these locations, the crop is sown on residual summer soil moisture and left to grow on progressively depleting water content, finally maturing under terminal drought conditions. The metabolic profile of plants is commonly, correlatively associated with performance or stress responses, e.g., the accumulation of osmoprotective metabolites during cold stress. In animals and humans, metabolites are also prognostically used to predict the likelihood of an event (usually a disease) before it occurs, e.g., blood cholesterol and heart disease. We sought to discover metabolic biomarkers in chickpea that could be used to predict grain yield traits under terminal drought, from the leaf tissue of young, watered, healthy plants. The metabolic profile (GC-MS and enzyme assays) of field-grown chickpea leaves was analysed over two growing seasons, and then predictive modelling was applied to associate the most strongly correlated metabolites with the final seed number plant⁻¹. Pinitol (negatively), sucrose (negatively) and GABA (positively) were significantly correlated with seed number in both years of study. The feature selection algorithm of the model selected a larger range of metabolites including carbohydrates, sugar alcohols and GABA. The correlation between the predicted seed number and actual seed number was R² adj = 0.62, demonstrating that the metabolic profile could be used to predict a complex trait with a high degree of accuracy. A previously unknown association between D-pinitol and hundred-kernel weight was also discovered and may provide a single metabolic marker with which to predict large seeded chickpea varieties from new crosses. The use of metabolic biomarkers could be used by breeders to identify superior-performing genotypes before maturity is reached.