Assessment of Water Supply Stability for Drought-Vulnerable Boryeong Multipurpose Dam in South Korea Using Future Dry Climate Change Scenarios
2019
Wonjin Kim | Jiwan Lee | Jinuk Kim | Seongjoon Kim
This study assessed the water supply stability for Boryeong multipurpose dam by applying future dry climate change scenarios and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were selected as the future dry conditions using Runs theory and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). For historical (1980−1999), present (2000−2019), and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) of the 6 scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate the future dam water supply stability. The stability was evaluated in terms of reliability (<i>R<sub>T</sub></i>), resilience (<i>R<sub>S</sub></i>), and vulnerability (<i>V</i>) based on the monthly target storage. The results showed that the future <i>R<sub>T</sub></i> can be decreased to 0.803 in 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 scenario from present 0.955. The future <i>R<sub>S</sub></i> and <i>V</i> showed the minimum value of 0.003 and the biggest value of 3567.6 × 10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup> in 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 scenario. The future <i>R<sub>T</sub></i>, <i>R<sub>S</sub></i>, and <i>V</i> showed that the dam has low resilience and is vulnerable to future drought scenarios.
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