Predation of eggs and incubating females in willow ptarmigan Lagopus l. lagopus

Nest predation is a major cause of reproductive loss in many ground-nesting birds. During 15 consecutive years the predation of nests and females throughout the incubation season were recorded in a willow ptarmigan Lagopus l. lagopus population in central Norway. The temporal predation patterns, factors affecting the predation probability and age-specific nesting patterns in this species were studied. There was a large annual variation in predation rate of both nests (0-50%) and incubating females (0-29%) in this area during the study period. The mean annual predation rate of nests (15%) was on average three times higher than the predation of incubating willow ptarmigan females (5%). Predation rate was not constant throughout the incubation season, and the nest predation rate increased with increasing number of available nests. The predation events started after the mean initiation day of incubation, and coincided with the highest number of available nests. None of the parameters we tested in a logistic regression analysis (physical condition, nest cover, experience and date for initiation of egg-laying) could predict the predation probability of nests and incubating females. However, “good” nest cover tended to have some predictive value on the predation probability. Yearling incubating females had significantly lower physical body condition than adults, and also there were differences in choice of nest site in relation to cover between the two age groups. Initiation of egg-laying in adult females tended to be distributed more evenly over the season, whereas yearling females had a more aggregated egg-laying pattern, compared to adults.