Monitoring Drought Intensity and Frequency in Northeastern Iraq
2024
Alan Mustafa
Drought is a recurring phenomenon, a natural feature of the climate, and one of the major natural hazards to which Iraq is repeatedly exposed, causing significant damage to environmental, social, and economic systems, especially agricultural areas. This study is an estimate of drought intensity and frequency in terms of annual precipitation. This study aims to assess hydrological drought (SPI 12) events within Sulaimanya province, Iraq, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to analyze annual precipitation data from 15 weather stations covering the period from 2003 to 2022. Determine the duration of the hydrological drought. The results showed that 53% of the studied years were classified as wet, while 47% were classified as dry based on the standard value of the rainfall index at 12 months. Stations, Sulaimanya, Chamchamal, Halabja, Kalar, and Khanaqin exhibit the most significant rainfall deficits, exceeding 25%, indicating severe drought, Conversely, stations, Darbandikhan, Dukan, Saidsadq, Qaradakh, Qaladza, Mawat, and Kfry display moderate rainfall deficits ranging from 20% to 25%, . Less than 20% rainfall deficit is seen in sites Penjwen, Chwarta, and Rania, indicating a negligible departure from the long-term average rainfall. The southern part of the study area, known as Garmian, receives less annual rainfall Compared to the northern part, the effect of drought is more pronounced in the southern part of the study area when the annual rainfall decreases. The annual rainfall deficit was assessed relative to the 20-year average rainfall for each station, The study observed changes in rainfall patterns across meteorological stations in the study area.
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