Prediction of cow fertility based on productivity traits in dairy cattle under different production systems

A study to examine factors that influence dairy cattle fertility was conducted in the United Kingdom (UK) and Malawi. Productivity data from the UK comprising 56,014 records from 574 Holstein cows were retrieved from a database at Scotland’s Rural College Dairy Research Centre in Dumfries. The cows were of either high (select) or average (control) genetic merit and fed total mixed rations with high or low forage. These formed four production systems - high forage select (HFS), low forage select (LFS), high forage control (HFC) and low forage control (LFC). Data from Malawi were obtained through a baseline survey in 67 smallholder farms and monitoring of 28 and 62 dairy cows from smallholder farms and a commercial farm, respectively. The breeds were Holstein-Friesians and Holstein-Friesian x Malawi Zebu crosses predominantly fed forages supplemented with concentrates. Some cows were fitted with accelerometers to enable monitoring of cow activity which was then related to cow fertility and energy balance. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, mixed models and logistic regression models using SAS 9.3. The UK data showed that production system significantly (p<0.05) influenced milk yield, body energy content (BEC) and fertility. BEC is a trait that indicates absolute level of energy in the body per day regardless of energy use and intake the previous day. Daily milk yield of LFS cows was 35±0.1 (mean±SEM) litres which was significantly (p<0.05) higher than that of LFC (30.4±0.1 litres), HFS (27.5±0.1 litres) and HFC (24.3±0.1 litres) cows. LFS cows also had the highest milk yield acceleration to peak milk yield (0.51 litres/day/day) than (LFC 0.47±0.02 litres/day/day), HFC (0.47±0.03 litres/day/day) and HFS (0.46±0.03 litres/day/day) cows. The interval from calving to nadir BEC was 68±5, 83±6, 88±5 and 106±6 days for LFC, LFS, HFC and HFS cows, respectively. Days to first high luteal activity (DFHLA) and days to successful service (DSS) were significantly different with production system and genetic merit, respectively. LFC cows had DFHLA of 27±2 days (mean±SEM) which were significantly lower (p<0.05) than those of HFC (30±3 days), HFS (30±2 days) and LFS (35±3 days) cows. Average genetic merit cows had significantly lower (p<0.05) DSS (119±5 days, mean±SEM) than high genetic merit cows (132±5 days). Results from data collected in Malawi showed variations that reflected differences in management and other environmental factors. Average daily milk yield per lactation in Malawi was 13.3±4.9 (mean±SD) litres. Fertility traits in the UK herd were better than those in Malawi herds. The average DFHLA in Malawi was 79±29 days while in the UK it was 31±18 days. Cow activity in both the UK and Malawi farms varied with the feeding system, genetic merit and BEC. Select cows on home grown feeding system were more active (motion index =6250±40), stood longer (13.4±0.04 hours/day) and spent more time eating (5.6±0.32 hours/day, mean±SEM) than select cows on by products feeding system that had motion index, standing and eating time of 5166±37, 11.9±0.04 hours/day and 4.6±0.16 hours/day, respectively. Genetic merit, lactation number, days to first observed oestrus, calving BEC, service BEC and service milk yield were significant predictors of pregnancy to first insemination (p<0.05) while genetic merit, milk yield, percentage BEC between calving and service, service milk yield and service BEC were significant predictors (p<0.05) of pregnancy to the first three inseminations. Validation of models derived showed C-statistics of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.66 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57 to 0.75) and 0.65 (CI: 0.55-0.75), respectively. It is concluded that genetic merit, feeding system, parity, energy status and stage of lactation are the major factors that determine the likelihood of achieving pregnancy following insemination. Models developed have a potential to predict the probability of pregnancy to an insemination at an acceptable level of accuracy.