Development of a growth forecast model in Japanese radish harvested in autumn to winter and evaluation of the impact of global warming
2020
Takada, A. | Ohta, K. | Kusano, K. | Okada, K.
We developed a growth forecast model to predict the increase in root dry weight (RDW) and root fresh weight (RFW) of Japanese radish harvested in autumn to winter. We used cultivation data of a Japanese variety 'Fukuhomare' and meteorological data from 2014 to 2018 at the Miura Peninsula area and Hiratsuka area in Kanagawa. At the beginning, leaf area was calculated from cumulative temperature and total dairy increase of dry weight (TDW) was estimated using daily intercepted solar radiation (DIR) and radiation utilization efficiency (RUE). Then, root fresh weight (RFW) was calculated by assuming that the distribution of dry matter to root is a function of the leaf number, and ratio of fresh weight to dry weight of root is a function of cumulative temperature. The model predicted RDW and RFW (standardized products) with mean relative errors (MRE) of 17% and 20%, respectively. We simulated the influence of global warming in 2050 under conditions of 10% increase and decrease in the solar radiation. In Japanese radish seeded between September 7 and October 12 in 2050 at Miura Peninsula, temperature will rise by 2.7-3.3℃, harvest advanced by 6-56 days and yield increase by 29-212%. At the 10% increase and 10% decrease of the solar radiation, harvest will advance by 9-58 days and 4-53 days, and yield increase by 41-243% and 17-182%, respectively.
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