Models for predicting dates of budding and full bloom of ‘Delaware’ grape based on the daily average temperature
2020
Kamimori, M. (Local Independent Administrative Agency Research Institute of Environment, Agriculture and Fisheries, Osaka Prefecture, Habikino, Osaka (Japan)) | Miwa, Y. | Isobe, T. | Hosomi, A.
In this study, we aimed to develop a model for predicting dates of budding and full bloom of ‘Delaware’ grape under open field conditions based on the daily average temperature. To predict budding and full bloom dates of ‘Delaware’ grape, we analyzed field data from 1963 to 2019, with two methods adopted for the growth simulation model: accumulated temperature method and developmental rate (DVR) method. Strong negative correlations between the number of days for germination and temperature and the number of days for flowering and temperature were detected. The DVR method (starting date of February 21) showed the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 2.4 days for the prediction of budding dates. The RMSE of the DVR method = 2.1 days was the lowest for the prediction of full bloom dates. The findings of this study suggest that the developmental stages of grape can be predicted with practical accuracy by adopting an appropriate growth simulation model of targeted developmental stages.
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