Marginal abatement cost curve for an ammonia reduction measure in agriculture: the case of Latvia

With the production of grain and livestock–derived agricultural commodities increasing, the agricultural sector has become one of the main sources of ammonia (NH3) emissions in Latvia. In 2018, the agricultural sector contributed to 83% of the total NH3 emissions originated in Latvia (15.46 kt) (LIIR 2020). The EU has already put in place measures to control NH3 emissions. This includes the EU target of reducing ammonia emissions by 21% by 2030 and sets out emission reduction commitments for Latvia. Considering Latvia’s indicative reduction target, the NH3 emission reductions need to be achieved by 2030 (Directive 2016/2284) so that the emissions do not exceed the 2005 level (11.33 kt). Implementing no mitigation measures, Latvia has projected agricultural sector NH3 emissions to be 32.4% higher than those in 2005, and therefore the mitigation of the NH3 emissions from agriculture is important. The research aims to estimate cost-effective NH3 emission reduction measures in agriculture in Latvia. The results of the research represent a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) analysis, in which we have quantified the potential for reduction for selected NH3 emission mitigation measures in Latvia. A list of the measures has been established taking into account the experience of good agricultural practices in the reduction of NH3 emissions (UN, 2014) and of other European countries as well. The calculations carried out allowed us to group the measures according to their priorities: measures that are cost-effective and with high potential for reduction of NH3; measures that are cost-effective but with low NH3 emission reduction potential; measures that are not cost-effective but with high potential for reduction of NH3; measures that are not cost-effective and with low potential for reduction of NH3. The estimated cumulative (total) reduction of NH3 emissions in Latvian agriculture by 2030, with the implementation of the measures analysed, is equal to 20.08 kt.