Climate and population origin shape pine tree height-diameter allometry

Tree height-diameter allometry, the link between tree height and trunk diameter, reflects the evolutionary response of a particular species’ allocation patterns to above and belowground resources. As a result, it differs among and within species due to both local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity. These phenotypic variations in tree height-diameter allometry determine tree productivity, resistance and resilience to climate variation and, ultimately, the success of plant material used in restoration projects. We tested the effect of climate change and population origin on the phenotypic variation of tree allometry in four pine species at an early stage of development (ca. 11 years old) based upon data originated from multi-site provenance tests and planted along a wide climatic range in south-western Europe. For a representative sample of populations from each species, we used already-developed species-specific height-diameter allometric models to assess changes in allometry between present and future climatic conditions. We found that Pinus halepensis and Pinus pinaster were the most plastic species, while Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra showed negligible plastic responses. In addition, our models stressed that pine tree height-diameter allometry will change and phenotypic variation could increase, except in P. sylvestris, under future environmental conditions. For some of the species, this might allow the selection of phenotypes better suited to novel climatic conditions. These foreseeable changes in tree height-diameter allometry (among and within-species) could entail eco-evolutionary effects on the early forest plantation dynamics. Therefore, restoration and reforestation plans should consider these effects, as they may interfere with production and/or environmental goals.