Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Bandung City, Indonesia using a ARIMA model
2024
Agung Sutriyawan | Martini Martini | Dwi Sutiningsih | Farid Agushybana | Nur Endah Wahyuningsih | Victor Eneojo Adamu | Hairil Akbar | Matheus Aba
Background. Dengue is a public health problem that leads to death. This disease is necessary to monitor to reduce its impact on the community. Purpose. This study aims to forecast the incidence of dengue in Bandung City using historical data from 2014 to 2023. Method. This retrospective observational study examined dengue incidence in Bandung City from 2014 to 2023, secondary data were processed and analysed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast dengue incidence. Results. The best model generated is ARIMA (3,0,3), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE = 33,3437) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = 0,1489). Based on the model, the peak of dengue cases is estimated to occur in September 2024 (320 cases). Conclusion. The peak incidence of dengue in Bandung City will occur in September 2024. Hence the need for vector control efforts in several sub-districts and increasing efforts to prevent and control dengue.
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