Combining local monitoring data and scientific models to prioritize conservation for European ground squirrel and safeguard grassland habitats

Context: Promoting grassland habitat networks within agricultural landscapes is essential for supporting biodiversity. However, the characteristics of these networks are often poorly documented, making it difficult to prioritize conservation strategies and effectively protect grassland-dependent species. Objectives: We set to identify conservation priorities for (semi)natural grasslands by assessing habitat network characteristics based on a combination of monitoring data and scientific model output for European Ground Squirrel (EGS), a keystone grassland specialist, in agricultural settings of northern Serbia. Methods: We used the spatially explicit model, LARCH, to determine the current habitat networks and available monitoring data on presence/absence and habitat suitability together with Circuitscape to better understand the characteristics of those networks. The combination of modeling results and monitoring data was used to prioritize conservation measures for each network to support a stable and viable EGS metapopulation. Results: We identified 15 habitat networks. Our analysis showed that two of these need no interventions, but most of them need a mix of improving habitat quality and connections within and between the networks to support local populations and the metapopulation overall. Conclusions: Results revealed areas in which spatial adaptation measures (e.g., grassland restoration and corridor development) should be deployed to accommodate the long-term survival of EGS. It might be considered to stop conservation efforts in some abandoned networks as the network characteristics are too poor, and resources should be used to improve habitat networks that are still occupied. Our findings may guide the conservation of (semi)natural grasslands and future sustainable land-use planning in intensively farmed landscapes.