Multi-Model Ensemble Machine Learning Approaches to Project Climatic Scenarios in a River Basin in the Pyrenees

This study employs machine learning algorithms to construct Multi Model Ensembles (MMEs) based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) within the Esca River basin in the Pyrenees. RCMs are ranked comprehensively based on their performance in simulating precipitation (pr), minimum temperature (tmin), and maximum temperature (tmax), revealing variability across seasons and influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) driving each RCM. The top-ranked approach is used to determine the optimal number of RCMs for MME construction, resulting in the selection of seven RCMs. Analysis of MME results demonstrates significant improvements in precipitation on both annual and seasonal scales, while temperature-related enhancements are more subtle at the seasonal level. The effectiveness of the ML–MME technique is highlighted by its impact on hydrological representation using a Temez model, yielding outcomes comparable to climate observations and surpassing results from Simple Ensemble Means (SEMs). The methodology is extended to climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, generating more realistic information for precipitation, temperature, and streamflow compared to SEM, thus reducing uncertainty and aiding informed decision-making in hydrological modeling at the basin scale. This study underscores the potential of ML–MME techniques in advancing climate projection accuracy and enhancing the reliability of data for basin-scale impact analyses. © The Author(s) 2024.

We acknowledge support from the María de Maeztu Excellence Unit for the periods 2018-2022 (Ref. MDM-2017-0714) and 2023-2027 (Ref. CEX2021-001201-M funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033), including support from the KVORTEX predoctoral project (MDM-2017-0714-19-3). This research was also partly supported by the research project TwinTagus from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under grant PID2021-128126OA-I00. Javier Senent-Aparicio was also supported by the BC3 Visiting Programme - Talent Attraction.