A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
2023
van de Ven, D.J. | Mittal, S. | Gambhir, A. | Lamboll, R.D. | Doukas, H. | Giarola, S. | Hawkes, A. | Koasidis, K. | Köberle, A.C. | McJeon, H. | Perdana, S. | Peters, G.P. | Rogelj, J. | Sognnaes, I. | Vielle, M. | Nikas, A. | European Commission
The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]D.V., S.M., A.G., H.D., S.G., A.H., K.K., A.K., S.P., G.P., J.R., I.S., M.V. and A.N. acknowledge support from the H2020 European Commission Project PARIS REINFORCE (grant no. 820846). R.L. acknowledges support from the H2020 European Commission Project PROVIDE (grant no. 101003687). D.V., S.M., A.G., H.D., S.G., A.H., K.K., G.P., I.S. and A.N. also acknowledge support from the Horizon Europe R&I programme project IAM COMPACT (grant no. 101056306).
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