How does rural in-migration affect forest clearing and smallholder land use in tropical forest frontiers? Evidence from the Zambian Miombo woodlands

One of the main sources of increasing population pressure in forested landscapes of Zambia is in-migration from other rural areas. This in-migration is driven by environmental degradation and limited employment options in the villages of origin, and, to a limited extent, in-migration from urban areas due to widespread unemployment and increased cost of living in cities. The current study examines the relationship between in-migration, forest clearing, and land use change in forested landscapes in Zambia. This question is especially relevant considering that in 2020, 85% of total carbon dioxide emissions in the country were attributed to Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF). Based on a dataset of 1123 households living in or near the Miombo woodlands in Zambia, we estimate a multivariate tobit model to explain forest clearing and the area under annual crops at the household level. Households reported the availability of agricultural land, natural resources, or fertile soils as their main reason for migration. Regression results showed that being an in-migrant household was associated with 28% more forest area cleared for crop production during the 5 years prior to data collection and with an 8% increase in area cultivated with annual crops. Our results add to limited available quantitative evidence on the impacts of in-migration on forest clearing and land use in tropical forest frontiers at the micro-scale. With rising in-migration in the future that leads to further forest clearing in migrant-receiving areas, the cycle can repeat itself, where increasing population pressure and deforestation can lead to environmental degradation and migration to other forested landscapes. To address this chain, future policy should aim to deal with the root causes of internal migration, including by investing in landscape restoration and sustainable agricultural intensification in origin areas.