Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets
2025
Palomo, I. | González-García, A. | Ferraro, P.J. | Muradian, R. | Pascual, U. | Arboledas, M. | Bullock, J.M. | Bruley, E. | Gómez-Baggethun, E. | Lavorel, S.
To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly “bend the curve” have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets. © The Author(s) 2024.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]We thank Eric Lambin and Elena Bennett for their comments on an earlier version of this article. IP was funded by the French National Research Agency\u2019s Programme d\u2019Investissements d\u2019Avenir grant number ANR-19-MPGA-0009. SL was funded by the project PEPRSOLU-BIOD. JMB was funded under UKCEH National Capability projects 09220 and NE/X006247/1. UP acknowledges the Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2023-2026 (Ref. CEX2021-001201-M) which provided funding via MCIN/AEI/ https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 .
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