Discovering historical rainfall erosivity with a parsimonious approach: A case study in Western Germany
2017
Diodato, Nazzareno | Borrelli, Pasquale | Fiener, Peter | Bellocchi, Gianni | Romano, Nunzio | Italy ; Met European Research Observatory (MetEROBS) | Environment Geosciences ; Université de Bâle = University of Basel = Basel Universität (Unibas) | Inst Geog ; Universität Augsburg [Deutschland] = University of Augsburg [Germany] = Université d'Augsburg [Allemagne] (UNIA) | Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS) | AFBE Div, Dept Agr Sci ; University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II
An in-depth analysis of the interannual variability of storms is required to detect changes in soil erosive power of rainfall, which can also result in severe on-site and off-site damages. Evaluating long-term rainfall erosivity is a challenging task, mainly because of the paucity of high-resolution historical precipitation observations that are generally reported at coarser temporal resolutions (e.g., monthly to annual totals). In this paper we suggest overcoming this limitation through an analysis of long-term processes governing rainfall erosivity with an application to datasets available the central Ruhr region (Western Germany) for the period 1701-2011. Based on a parsimonious interpretation of seasonal rainfall-related processes (from spring to autumn), a model was derived using 5-min erosivity data from 10 stations covering the period 1937-2002, and then used to reconstruct a long series of annual rainfall erosivity values. Change-points in the evolution of rainfall erosivity are revealed over the 1760s and the 1920s that mark three sub-periods characterized by increasing mean values. The results indicate that the erosive hazard tends to increase as a consequence of an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events occurred during the last decades, characterized by short-rain events regrouped into prolonged wet spells. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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