Research on the Influencing Factors of Comprehensive Water Consumption by Impulse Response Function Analysis
2017
Shibiao Fang | Renfu Jia | Wenrong Tu | Zhilin Sun
Jiangsu is a major province located in the east of China, consuming a large amount of water resources. It is considered that improving the comprehensive water use efficiency has an important significance to achieve sustainable development of the economy in Jiangsu. Through extensive literature research and investigation of Jiangsu Province, this paper establishes comprehensive water use efficiency index system using water consumption per ten thousand dollar gross domestic product (WC/$104 GDP) as the research target. In the index system, resource factors such as surface water resources (SW), groundwater resources (GW), precipitation (PT), water resources per capita (PW), water consumption per capita (PC) and irrigation area per capita (PI) cannot be artificially altered. Furthermore, the variation amplitude of resource factors is very small. It shows that the linear regression model is not suitable to analyze the resource factors by changing the independent variables. In view of this situation, this paper introduces impulse response function on the basis of vector autoregressive model (VAR) to investigate the intrinsic link between resource factors and WC/$104 GDP in Jiangsu Province. The results show that resource factors have a great impact on WC/$104 GDP in Jiangsu, and the per capita water resources (PW) has the most significant impact.
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