Decline in Ice Coverage and Ice-Free Period Extension in the Kara and Laptev Seas during 1979–2022
2024
Pavel Shabanov | Alexander Osadchiev | Natalya Shabanova | Stanislav Ogorodov
The duration of ice-free periods in different parts of the Arctic Ocean plays a great role in processes in the climate system and defines the most comfortable sea ice conditions for economic activity. Based on satellite-derived sea ice concentration data acquired by passive microwave instruments, we identified the spatial distribution of the dates of sea ice retreat (DOR), dates of sea ice advance (DOA), and the resulting ice-free period duration (IFP) between these days for the Kara and Laptev seas during 1979&ndash:2022. The monthly decline in sea ice extent was detected from June to October in both seas, i.e., during the whole ice-free period. The annual mean sea ice extent during 2011&ndash:2021 decreased by 19.0% and 12.8% relative to the long-term average during 1981&ndash:2010 in the Kara and Laptev seas, respectively. The statistically significant (95% confidence level) positive IFP trends were detected for the majority of areas of the Kara and Laptev seas. Averaged IFP trends were estimated equal to +20.2 day/decade and +16.2 day/decade, respectively. The observed DOR tendency to earlier sea ice melting plays a greater role in the total IFP extension, as compared to later sea ice formation related to the DOA tendency. We reveal that regions of inflow of warm Atlantic waters to the Kara Sea demonstrate the largest long-term trends in DOA, DOR, and IFP associated with the decrease in ice coverage, that highlights the process of atlantification. Also, the Great Siberian Polynya in the Laptev Sea is the area of the largest long-term decreasing trend in DOR.
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