Using the fuzzy Delphi Technique to Investigate the Factors Involved in Agricultural Land Use Change in Iran
2025
Asimeh, Mahbobeh | azadi, abolfazl
Agricultural land use conversion and its aggravating factors form an environmental challenge only second to water scarcity as the fundamental problem in the Iranian agricultural arena. It is, therefore, essential to identify the factors underlying land use change. The present study strives to explore the factors that lead to agricultural land use change to such uses as recreational and housing developments in Iran. For the purposes of this study, questionnaires were given to 12 experts in land use assessment and change selected from the Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Centers from across Iran using the purposive and snowball sampling methods alongside the fuzzy Delphi technique in two stages. From the 72 indicators extracted from the expert consensus achieved, 28 in four groups (economic, social-cultural, legal-institutional, and environmental-infrastructure) were selected based on expert opinion as the most significant factors affecting land use change. The results showed that the legal and institutional factor was more important; more specifically, lack of proper planning by the government to preserve agricultural lands, lack of definitive reaction by the authorities to land use changers, and reliance of organizations and departments on the revenues exacted from land use change ranked first to third in this dimension, with weights of 0.0992, 0.0973, and 0.0968, respectively. Thus, these factors can evidently play decisive roles in managing agricultural land use change. It was, furthermore, found instructive that the government should adopt measures to review and update the current land governance structure, review and revise the gaps in the relevant laws and the existing regulatory provisions, prevent fragmentation of agricultural lands, raise awareness among the rural communities regarding the advantages of preserving current agricultural land uses, and alert them about the dire consequences of such changes.
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