A Novel Conservation Genomic Strategy: Selection for the Probability of Offspring Heterozygosity
2025
Attila Zsolnai | András Nagy | Gábor Szalai | Ino Curik | István Anton | Péter Hudák | László Varga
The primary objective of any conservation breeding program is to preserve the genetic diversity of populations. This objective is a persistent challenge, especially in small populations which are prone to loss of heterozygosity. In this study, we proposed a novel parent-selection strategy aimed at the long-term maintenance of high levels of genetic diversity. Our approach is based on estimating the Probability of Offspring Heterozygosity (POH)—the likelihood that a mating will produce heterozygous offspring—using SNP genotype data. This strategy was evaluated through computer simulations, where parental pairs with the highest POH values were preferentially selected to produce the next generation. Simulations explored the effects of varying the number of breeding pairs, and the number of unlinked SNP markers. Selection based on POH resulted in observed heterozygosity (H<sub>OBS</sub>) consistently exceeding expected heterozygosity (H<sub>EXP</sub>), a trend that was sustained for up to 1000 generations. While further evaluation is needed within more complex population genetic frameworks—accounting for linkage disequilibrium, recombination, optimal contribution, and phenotypic selection—our findings highlight the potential of POH as a valuable tool for enhancing genetic diversity in conservation breeding programs.
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