Multi-Model Analyses of Spatiotemporal Variations of Water Resources in Central Asia

Over the past 70 years, Central Asia has emerged as a globally recognized water security hotspot due to its unique geographic location and uneven distribution of water resources. In arid and semi-arid regions, understanding runoff dynamics under climate change is essential for ensuring regional water security. This study addresses the data-sparse Central Asian region by applying the ISIMIP3b multi-scenario analysis framework, selecting three representative global hydrological models. Using model intercomparison, trend analysis, and geographically weighted regression, we assess the spatiotemporal evolution of runoff from 1950 to 2080 and investigate the spatial heterogeneity of runoff responses to precipitation and temperature. The results show that under the historical scenario, all models consistently identify similar spatial pattern of runoff, with higher values in southeastern mountainous regions and lower values in western and central regions. However, substantial differences exist in runoff magnitude, with regional annual means of 10, 26, and 68 mm across the three models, respectively. The spatial disparity of runoff distribution is projected to increase under higher SSP scenarios. During the historical period, most of Central Asia experienced a slight decreasing trend in runoff, but the overall trends were &minus:0.022, 0.1, and 0.065 mm/year, respectively. In contrast, future projections indicate a transition to increasing trends, particularly in eastern regions, where trend magnitudes and statistical significance are notably greater than in the west. Meanwhile, the spatial extent of significant trends expands under high-emission scenarios. Precipitation exerts a positive influence on runoff in over 80% of the region, while temperature impacts exhibit strong spatial variability. In the WaterGAP2-2e and MIROC-INTEG-LAND models, temperature has a positive effect on runoff in glaciated plateau regions, likely due to enhanced snow and glacier melt under warming conditions. This study presents a multi-model framework for characterizing climate&ndash:runoff interactions in data-scarce and environmentally sensitive regions, offering insights for water resource management in Central Asia.