Long-Term Climate Trends in Southern Angola and Possible Implications in Agriculture

Climate change poses a significant challenge to agriculture in southern Angola, particularly for smallholder farming systems that are highly exposed and vulnerable, lacking the resources and capacity to respond effectively. This study analyses climate trends from 1950 to 2024 in Hu&iacute:la, Namibe, and Cunene, focusing on eight variables: Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, PRCPTOT, R95p, R95pTOT, CDD, and CWD. Due to inconsistencies in local meteorological station data, ERA5-Land reanalysis was used. Trends such as rising Tmin in Namibe (+0.32 &deg:C/decade), Tmean in Hu&iacute:la (+0.16 &deg:C/decade), and increased precipitation in Hu&iacute:la (+29.3 mm/decade), along with fewer dry days in Namibe (&ndash:2.7 days/decade), were observed. Crop&ndash:climate relationships (2000&ndash:2023) were explored using a categorical contingency analysis. Maize showed its highest yield frequency (46%) during hot years: cassava and beans were more stable under cooler, drier conditions: millet yielded above average (31%) in dry years, confirming drought resilience: potatoes performed poorly in wet years (17% above-average yields). The contingency method provided insights where linear models were insufficient, helping to understand climate&ndash:yield interactions in data-limited environments. This study offers the first long-term climate&ndash:agriculture assessment for southern Angola, providing critical evidence for climate-informed agricultural strategies in regions with scarce and unreliable observational records. The findings emphasise the urgent need for adaptation policies focused on crop-specific climate vulnerabilities. They also demonstrate the value of combining reanalysis data and categorical analysis to overcome data gaps and guide sustainable agricultural planning.