Climate variability and climate information use for water resources conservation decisions: a case of Kilombero river catchment, Tanzania

Dissertation

This study assessed climate variability and the use of weather and climate information for water resources conservation decisions in the Kilombero River catchment. In addition, it assessed the extent of climate change adaptation strategies in the National Water Policy of 2002. Data were collected from 120 household respondents, three focus group and seven key informants in the three study villages. Historical rainfall and temperature data were also obtained from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency to discern climate variability in the area. The rainfall and temperature data were analysed for trends using Mann-Kendall test. Quantitative data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences while qualitative information was analysed using content analysis. Tobit regression model was used to established factors which influence use of weather and climate information. Results show inter-annual and seasonal rainfalls do not show consistence increasing or decreasing trends in Mahenge, Kilombero and Ifakara stations for the period 1986 - 2016. However, annual and intermediate (January and February) rainfalls in Mahenge showed decreasing trends significant at 0.05 a level of significance. Temperatures were increasing at Mahenge station for all seasons, but significant trends were observed in annual minimum and minimum temperatures during short rains (October, November and December) at 0.05 and 0.01 a levels of significance respectively. Weather and climate information are locally available in the area with medium use. Extension visits (13=0.079; p<0.01), scientific types (13=0.182; p<0.05), traditional methods (13=0.114; p<0.05) and household income (13=0.072; p<0.05) were the only factors which had significant and positive correlations with decisions on water resources conservation. It is concluded that climate is highly variable and there is medium use of weather and climate information. The study recommends improvements of communities’ adaptive capacity emphasize factors which had significant positive correlations with decisions on water resources conservation.

Uncertainty Reduction in Models for Understanding Development Applications (UMFULA) project under Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) programme