Rainfall and temperature trends in northeastern states of India: Implications for agricultural productivity
2025
CHETIA , JYOTSNALI | CHETIA, MONISHA
We analyzed the changes in annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature across seven northeastern Indian states for the period 1970-2023. Our findings indicate significant changes in climatic conditions, including both maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall. Specifically, there has been a significant decline in seasonal monsoon rainfall, with overall annual rainfall also decreasing, except in Mizoram. Over the past five decades, there has been a marked increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures, though the extent of this warming differs by state and period. Temperature trends show a clear rise in both maximum and minimum temperatures. Considering the agricultural dependence in these states, we also examined the impact of climatic factors on Assam's agricultural output using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Findings show that rainfall significantly affects food grain production in Assam, whereas temperature does not significantly impact food grain production.
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