Comparação de modelos de análise multicritério para determinação de vulnerabilidade futura à inundação em Nova Lima/MG
2024
Gabriela Freitas Avelino
The present study aims to contribute to the establishment of a methodology for mapping areas vulnerable to projected climate risk of flooding, using Nova Lima, MG as a case study, for the period 2021 to 2040. Using multicriteria analysis, two approaches for defining weights were compared: a subjective method, based on expert knowledge, and an objective method, using principal component analysis. The variables considered were land use and cover (MapBiomas, 2022), accumulated flow, slope, hypsometry, and precipitation projected by the MPI-ESM1.2HR model. In a GIS environment, the variables were processed, and vulnerability maps were created through map algebra. The accuracy of the resulting vulnerability maps was evaluated based on historical flood data. Considering the data set used in this study, the model based on expert knowledge proved to be more accurate, with a Critical Success Index of 94.7%, while the objective model had a Critical Success Index of 21.1%. Some areas of the city with a history of flooding, such as the municipal headquarters and the Honório Bicalho neighborhood, are identified as areas of high and very high projected vulnerability for the period 2021-2040. However, some areas identified as having higher vulnerability are surprising, such as the Jardim Canadá neighborhood and the Morro do Chapéu Condominium. This is attributed to the influence of precipitation spatialization in both models. By identifying the areas with the greatest vulnerability, the study contributes to urban planning and the development of mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change in Nova Lima. It is understood that from the spatialization of flood hazard presented here, this work provides a basis for the development of more complex climate risk studies.
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