Scenar 2040: A scenario study on the Common Agricultural Policy
2025
Fellmann, Thomas | Tassinari, Gianmaria | Lasarte Lopez, Jesus | Rey Vicario, Dolores | Beber, Caetano | Barbosa, Ana Luisa | de Jong, Beyhan | Ferrari, Emanuele | Gocht, Alexander | Isbasoiu, Ancuta | Klinnert, Ana | Kremmydas, Dimitrios | M´barek, Robert | Philippidis, George | Rokicki, Bartlomiej | Tillie, Pascal | Weiss, Franz | Genovese, Giampiero | Philippidis, George [0000-0003-1727-2240] | European Commission
The Scenar 2040 study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of two hypothetical scenarios related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the EU agricultural sector and its broader environment. The baseline (reference scenario) is calibrated to the 2023 EU Agricultural Outlook, and the current national CAP Strategic Plans serve as starting point for the shifts in the policy scenarios. In the first scenario support is directed towards CAP measures enhancing productivity and competitiveness, whereas the second scenario shifts support towards more environmental and climate-focused interventions. The study also includes a counterfactual NoCAP scenario, simulating the removal of the entire CAP framework. The study aims to contribute to policy discussions on the future of the CAP by providing quantitative insights into the general implications of alternative CAP trajectories. The scenario results underscore the CAP’s essential role for the EU’s agricultural sector and its broader socio-economic and environmental interlinkages across territories. The results indicate that the removal of the CAP framework would have considerable heterogeneous economic, environmental, and social impacts across the EU. The two alternative CAP scenarios reveal contrasted outcomes aligned with their respective narratives. The results highlight the CAP’s critical role, the complexity involved in balancing competing objectives, and confirm market fundamentals as primary drivers of production, although policy can significantly modulate outcomes.
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