Carbon Storage and Sequestration Assessment in Anambra River Basin, Southeast Nigeria Using the InVEST Model
2024
Uzor-Totty, A.E. | Idisi, B.E.
The Anambra River Basin in Southeast Nigeria is undergoing rapid land-use changes, impacting its carbon sequestration potential. This study evaluates carbon stock dynamics in Nigeria’s Anambra River Basin from 2017 to 2040 using the InVEST Carbon Model, assessing impacts of land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes on climate mitigation potential. Results reveal drastic declines in forest carbon stocks (-57%) due to agricultural expansion (+739%) and urbanization (+115%), offset partially by gains in rangelands (+72%) and flooded vegetation (+849%). Total basin carbon stocks initially increased by 29.5% (2017–2024) before declining 9.9% (2024–2040), yielding a net gain of 16.7% (22.76 ×10⁶ Mg C) by 2040. Spatial analysis identified forests and wetlands as critical carbon sinks, while urban and agricultural zones emerged as emission hotspots. The findings highlight tensions between development and conservation, with deforestation mirroring trends across tropical regions and agricultural growth exacerbating soil carbon losses. The study underscores the urgency of climate-smart land-use policies, recommending (1) forest protection through REDD+ initiatives, (2) sustainable agricultural intensification, and (3) wetland conservation to leverage natural carbon sequestration. Methodologically, this work demonstrates the value of integrating InVEST modeling with spatial transition analysis for data-scarce regions. The results provide actionable insights for Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI), emphasizing the need to balance economic development with ecosystem-based climate strategies.
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