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An Econometric model of the Egyptian cotton market and expectations of future in the light of economic variables on the world cotton market
2011
Gowily, W.A.A. | Rehan, M.K. | Abd-El-Maksoud, A.M.
The study showed that the average amount of global production of cotton during the period (2004-2008) was estimated at 20.849 million tons. Where China, United States of America and India in the front of producing countries and was the relative importance of the Egyptian production of cotton for the world in tenth place. The harvested area it may an annual average of about 33.205 million hectares during the same period. Where India, United States of America and China in the front of those countries, while the average quantity of world exports during the same period was estimated at 8.293 million tons / year. Where United States of America, Uzbekistan and India in the front of those countries, were ranked Egypt in the ninth position. while the imports it may average annual rate during the same period was estimated at 7.76 million tons / year. Where China, Turkey and Indonesia in the front of those countries, The world Stock comes China United States of America and India in the front of those countries during the same period, while the consumption of cotton, it may average annual rate during the same period was estimated at 21.15 million tons / year. Where China, India and Pakistan in the front of those countries. There is also a decrease in the area of the Extra long staple cotton in Egypt by 6040 feddan per year during the period (1990-2008). The area of long-staple cotton, there is a decrease up to 18190 feddan annually during the same period, while the production of Extra long staple cotton there are decline 6620 tons annually, while the production of long staple cotton there is a decline of 13,250 tons annually during the same period. With regard to the evolution of the total production costs of cotton in Egypt, there are increasing by 113.14 pounds / feddan per year as well as prices of farm cotton in Egypt, there are increasing by 170.95 pounds / tc5ns every year either total return for Egyptian cotton, there is increased total 173.34 pounds / feddan per year during the same period, The net return of cotton feddan to the study, noted the relative stability, and that it ranges around the arithmetic mean during the study period. Looks at the future of cotton in the world by forecasting its progress during the period (2009-2018), the direction of the Beginning stock to decline during the same period, while that the harvested area and end stock consumption relatively stable during the same Period, while exports and imports tended to increase during the same period, As for the forecasting of the Egyptian market during the same period the harvested area has tended to decline while increasing domestic consumption and with the relative stability in the beginning stock, as well as exports, Comparing the results to predict the global and Egyptian variables is showed Egyptian market for cotton towards the import of foreign cotton.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]A study for some factors affecting on farmers rational use of water irrigation in New Valley Governorate
2011
Mahrous, S.A.
The recent study aims to: identify the degree of farmers implementations for the recommendations of the technical rationalization of water use in New valley Governorate. In addition, identifying the independent variables affecting the degree of farmers implementations for the recommendations of the technical rationalization of water use as a dependent variable. In order to accomplish the study objectives, new valley Governorate was selected as a filed study. A systematic random sample of 212 farmers was selected. This sample represents about 5% of the total farmers in three villages in New valley Governorate. A questionnaire was designed and collected using the personal interview (after it was pre tested) during may 2011. Then, the data were tabulated and analyzed by using simple correlation coefficient, stepwise regression. The study finding showed that about 14% of the total sample have low level of implementations for the recommendations of the technical rationalization of water use. Medium category represents about 50%, and high category of implementations for the recommendations of the technical rationalization of water use represents about 36% of the total sample. Results revealed by using stepwise regression showed that three variables affected the degree of implementations for the recommendations of the technical rationalizations of water use, and these variables explained about 51% of the total variance of the implementations for the recommendations of the technical rationalization of water use. Those variables were: farmland holding size, respondent attitude towards the extension activities, finally respondent degree of formal social participation.
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