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MACRO ECONOMIC SIMULTANIOUS MODEL FOR EGYPTIAN NATIONAL ECONOMY 全文
2014
Abeer Abdalla Kinawy | Rehab Said Ibrahim
Gross national product (GNP) is considered as one of the important indicators that reflect the ability of national economy to achieve the main objectives of the state including creation of employment opportunities, development of export potentials, and positive contribution in reduction of the deficits in the balance of payments and the balance of trade. Analysis of the most important components of the gross national income is of considerable importance that enables the identification of changing values of individual components of the gross national product. The study aimed at identifying causes of imbalance in the national economy through the following determination of the relative importance of Egyptian GNP and development of important economic indicators in the Egyptian national economy. Analysis and identification of the most important economic factors affecting expenditure on consumption, investment, exports and imports are mode through building single and multiple equation models aiming at identifying the most important economic factors affecting variables of the study. Moreover, forecasting the most are also mode important variables until.2020. Results obtained indicated that the household consumer expenditure in 2012 was equal to 158.5 billion Dollars representing 58% of the GNP, followed by Investment expenditure, representing 18% of GNP, followed by government expenditure, total exports and total imports representing 9%, 8% and 7%, respectively. Results obtained proved that the most important economic indicators increased annually with different rates during the study period. Studying of the mutual impact between GNP and the study variables through building an econometric model and applying two stage least square method. The model contains six equations for GNP, total investments, total imports, total exports, government expenditure, and household expenditure. In addition, an identification equation for the (GNP= household expenditure + Investment expenditure + Government expenditure + net international trade). The study proved that while the most important determinants of the Egyptian GNPare total investments, total exports and imports factors, mostly affect total investment are total GNP, total Egyptian exports and exchange rate Egyptian Pound. In addition, factors determining total Egyptian Imports are total exports and the exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound. Moreover, factors determining government expenditure are total exports and households consumption. Furthermore, the household consumption is highly affected by GNP and total indirect taxes. Forecasted values of the study variables are obtained by estimating single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model. Results obtained indicated that the forecasted value of the Egyptian GNP in 2020 will be equal to 334$ and 335 billion Dollars using single trend equation and simultaneous equation models, respectively. The forecasted total investment in 2020 is expected to be equal 64 billion dollars. The forecasted Total Egyptian imports and exports using single trend equation are 33.2, and 29.2, billion dollars, respectively. The forecasted values of total exports and imports in 2020 using simultaneous equation model are 32.8, and 830.1, respectively. Regarding Government expenditure results obtained indicated that the forecasted government expenditure is expected to take values of 31.9 and 51.4 billion dollars using single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model, respectively. Results related to the forecasted household expenditure in 2020 is expected to take values of $206.5 billion and $334 billion using single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model, respectively. Based on the research results, best forecasted values the study variables are obtained by using simultaneous equation models. This may be attributed to the fact that simultaneous equation mod- els takes into account all variables as well as the interactions between variables. Based on results the study recommend that the state would give the highest priority to economic policy that would lead to rationalization of household expenditure. In addition, aiming at reducing the Egyptian trade balance, policies that would lead to reduction of the gap between imports and exports by limiting imports and encouraging exports are highly recommended. Moreover, policies that increase and encourage investment, limit inflation, and control of prices of goods and services are expected to have positive impact on the Egyptian economy.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]SEASONALITY OF DEMAND FOR SOME EGYPTIAN VEGETABLES IN Cairo El- Abour MARKET 全文
2014
Alaa M.R. Elsabea | Mohamed O. Abd El-fatah
The study showed the the importance of the effect of seasonality in determining the amounts received for the transit market of vegetable crops in Egypt. As it turned out great linkage between the quantities and prices of vegetables in the transit market, which reflects the importance of reconsidering the random cropping and where there is no minimum or organizing thread. Where it should be to regulate the use of agricultural resources limited to Egypt and so achieve the maximum return for producers and consumers and the marketer and reduces wastage of resources in making a glitch between supply and demand, resulting in higher prices hurt consumer Login or drop in prices hurt farmers' incomes. It is worth noting that the changes in the agricultural sector, which is the main activity in the Egyptian countryside, especially in the light of economic liberalization policies such as the abolition of support for agricultural inputs, and the liberalization of prices of agricultural and left are determined by market forces, with the demolition of Tzawar marketing system for Khaddrady to irregular or balance of supply with the demand after the policy of economic liberalization in the agriculture sector, which increased from large fluctuations in prices as a result of increasing the gap between supply and demand for agricultural commodities, and all of these reasons have led to an increase in poverty in the countryside and in Egypt in particular. This reflects the importance of Tzawar marketing system and return to the installation Almsola Central, which balances the needs of the consumer growing and limited agricultural resources by reducing the size of the gap between supply and demand, which reduces the price differences during the months of the year and which is reflected in the increase in income and welfare of the consumer and the producer together. The return of the agricultural cycle of the most important requirements for achieving balance in the prices of vegetables in Egypt and reduces loss in the limited agricultural resources and achieve the protection of soil fertility and reduces the need for fertilizers and pesticides. This regulation of the market productive agricultural reduce the imbalance between supply and demand, which increases the efficiency of the distribution of the use of agricultural resources among the wider use of alternative optimal resource allocation and reduce the waste of limited agricultural resources. Decreases as well as huge losses for producers and consumers at the micro level as well to reduce the negative effects on the macro level by reducing imports and increasing exports, where there is improved efficiency performance in the Egyptian agricultural sector at the micro level and kidneys.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]THE EFFECT OF DIFFERENT TYPES AND RATES OF FERTILIZERS ON THE POPULATION DENSITY OF SAP SUCKING PESTS INHABITING COWPEA FIELDS 全文
2014
El-Khayat, E. F. | Mona M. Ghallab | Wahba S.
This study was carried out during 2012 and 2013 seasons in the Horticultural Research Station at Kanater El- Khairiya, Qualiobeya Governorate to throw light on the effect of different types and rates of fertilizer treatments on the rates of infestation of the cowpea plants, Vigna unguiculata L. by different pests Tetranychus urticae, T. cucurbitacearum (eggs and motile stages), Bemisia tabaci (eggs, nymphs, pupae & adults), Thrips tabaci (nymphs & adults) and green Jassids and on the resultant crop yield. Data revealed that treatment with NPK mixture recorded the highest infestation rate by T. urticae Koch, T.cucurbitacearum (Sayed) and T. tabaci in the two seasons, while the K2O fertilizer revealed the lowest infestation rates. Moreover, the N2 fertilizer recorded the highest infestation with whitefly and Jassids. The brown scale insects, Coccus hesperidium Linnaeus were firstly recorded in Egypt on cowpea plants but throughout the first season only. The mixture treatments resulted highest yield (2428.3 &2675 Kg./fed.) followed by Micro-element treatments (1500 &1658.3 Kg./fed.) then K2O fertilizer treatment (1416.7 & 1553.3 Kg. /fed.) in 2012 and 2013, respectively; being significantly higher than control which recorded (756.0 & 845.0 Kg. / fed.) for the two seasons. However, the results showed a significant improvement in the uptake of NPK over the control, so it increased the production.
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