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Regional distribution of non-human H7N9 avian influenza virus detections in China and construction of a predictive model
2021
Huang, Zeying | Li, Haijun | Huang, Beixun
H7N9 avian influenza has broken out in Chinese poultry 10 times since 2013 and impacted the industry severely. Although the epidemic is currently under control, there is still a latent threat. Epidemiological surveillance data for non-human H7N9 avian influenza from April 2013 to April 2020 were used to analyse the regional distribution and spatial correlations of positivity rates in different months and years and before and after comprehensive immunisation. In addition, positivity rate monitoring data were disaggregated into a low-frequency and a high-frequency trend sequence by wavelet packet decomposition (WPD). The particle swarm optimisation algorithm was adopted to optimise the least squares support-vector machine (LS-SVM) model parameters to predict the low-frequency trend sequence, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the high-frequency one. Ultimately, an LS-SVM-ARIMA combined model based on WPD was constructed. The virus positivity rate was the highest in late spring and early summer, and overall it fell significantly after comprehensive immunisation. Except for the year 2015 and the single month of December from 2013 to 2020, there was no significant spatiotemporal clustering in cumulative non-human H7N9 avian influenza virus detections. Compared with the ARIMA and LS-SVM models, the LS-SVM-ARIMA combined model based on WPD had the highest prediction accuracy. The mean absolute and root mean square errors were 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Low error measures prove the validity of this new prediction method and the combined model could be used for inference of future H7N9 avian influenza virus cases. Live poultry markets should be closed in late spring and early summer, and comprehensive H7N9 immunisation continued.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Advances in research on genetic relationships of waterfowl parvoviruses
2021
Chen, Yanhui | Afumba, Ruth | Pang, Fusheng | Yuan, Rongxin | Dong, Hao
Derzsy’s disease and Muscovy duck parvovirus disease have become common diseases in waterfowl culture in the world and their potential to cause harm has risen. The causative agents are goose parvovirus (GPV) and Muscovy duck parvovirus (MDPV), which can provoke similar clinical symptoms and high mortality and morbidity rates. In recent years, duck short beak and dwarfism syndrome has been prevalent in the Cherry Valley duck population in eastern China. It is characterised by the physical signs for which it is named. Although the mortality rate is low, it causes stunting and weight loss, which have caused serious economic losses to the waterfowl industry. The virus that causes this disease was named novel goose parvovirus (NGPV). This article summarises the latest research on the genetic relationships of the three parvoviruses, and reviews the aetiology, epidemiology, and necropsy characteristics in infected ducks, in order to facilitate further study.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Porcine enteric coronavirus infections in wild boar in Poland – a pilot study
2021
Antas, Marta | Olech, Monika | Szczotka-Bochniarz, Anna
Porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) of the Coronaviridae family causes significant economic losses in the pig industry worldwide. Wild boars contribute to the transmission of different viral, bacterial and parasitic infections to livestock animals and humans. However, their role in the maintenance and transmission of PEDV has not been established. In this study, blood and faecal samples from 157 wild boars were collected from 14 provinces of Poland during the 2017–2018 hunting season. RNA was extracted from the faecal homogenate supernatant and subjected to quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR), while clotted blood samples were used for detection of antibodies against PEDV by ELISA. Five blood samples (3.2%) were seropositive in ELISA, while none of the faecal samples were found positive using RT-qPCR assays. The results of this analysis indicate the need for additional studies incorporating a larger number of samples and preferably comparing different serological methods, to confirm whether wild boars in Poland act as PEDV reservoirs.
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