Plastic pollution in the natural environment is causing increasing concern at both the local and global scale. Understanding the dispersion of plastic through the environment is of key importance for the effective implementation of preventive measures and cleanup strategies. Over the past few years, various models have been developed to estimate the transport of plastics in rivers, using limited plastic observations in river systems. However, there is a large discrepancy between the amount of plastic being modelled to leave the river systems, and the amount of plastic that has been found in the seas and oceans. Here, we investigate one of the possible causes of this mismatch by performing an extensive uncertainty analysis of the riverine plastic export estimates. We examine the uncertainty from the homogenisation of observations, model parameter uncertainty, and underlying assumptions in models. To this end, we use the to-date most complete time-series of macroplastic observations (macroplastics have been found to contain most of the plastic mass transported by rivers), coming from three European rivers. The results show that model structure and parameter uncertainty causes up to four orders of magnitude, while the homogenisation of plastic observations introduces an additional three orders of magnitude uncertainty in the estimates. Additionally, most global models assume that variations in the plastic flux are primarily driven by river discharge. However, we show that correlations between river discharge (and other environmental drivers) and the plastic flux are never above 0.5, and strongly vary between catchments. Overall, we conclude that the yearly plastic load in rivers remains poorly constrained.

Plastic pollution in the natural environment is causing increasing concern at both the local and global scale. Understanding the dispersion of plastic through the environment is of key importance for the effective implementation of preventive measures and cleanup strategies. Over the past few years, various models have been developed to estimate the transport of plastics in rivers, using limited plastic observations in river systems. However, there is a large discrepancy between the amount of plastic being modelled to leave the river systems, and the amount of plastic that has been found in the seas and oceans. Here, we investigate one of the possible causes of this mismatch by performing an extensive uncertainty analysis of the riverine plastic export estimates. We examine the uncertainty from the homogenisation of observations, model parameter uncertainty, and underlying assumptions in models. To this end, we use the to-date most complete time-series of macroplastic observations (macroplastics have been found to contain most of the plastic mass transported by rivers), coming from three European rivers. The results show that model structure and parameter uncertainty causes up to four orders of magnitude, while the homogenisation of plastic observations introduces an additional three orders of magnitude uncertainty in the estimates. Additionally, most global models assume that variations in the plastic flux are primarily driven by river discharge. However, we show that correlations between river discharge (and other environmental drivers) and the plastic flux are never above 0.5, and strongly vary between catchments. Overall, we conclude that the yearly plastic load in rivers remains poorly constrained.

Plastic pollution in the natural environment is causing increasing concern at both the local and global scale. Understanding the dispersion of plastic through the environment is of key importance for the effective implementation of preventive measures and cleanup strategies. Over the past few years, various models have been developed to estimate the transport of plastics in rivers, using limited plastic observations in river systems. However, there is a large discrepancy between the amount of plastic being modelled to leave the river systems, and the amount of plastic that has been found in the seas and oceans. Here, we investigate one of the possible causes of this mismatch by performing an extensive uncertainty analysis of the riverine plastic export estimates. We examine the uncertainty from the homogenisation of observations, model parameter uncertainty, and underlying assumptions in models. To this end, we use the to-date most complete time-series of macro-plastic observations (macroplastics have been found to contain most of the plastic mass transported by rivers), coming from three European rivers. The results show that model structure and parameter uncertainty causes up to four orders of magnitude, while the homogenisation of plastic observations introduces an additional three orders of magnitude uncertainty in the estimates. Additionally, most global models assume that variations in the plastic flux are primarily driven by river discharge. However, we show that correlations between river discharge (and other environmental drivers) and the plastic flux are never above 0.5, and strongly vary between catchments. Overall, we conclude that the yearly plastic load in rivers remains poorly constrained.

Anthropogenic noise in the oceans is disturbing marine life. Among other groups, pelagic fish are likely to be affected by sound from human activities, but so far have received relatively little attention. Offshore wind farms have become numerous and will become even more abundant in the next decades. Wind farms can be interesting to pelagic fish due to food abundance or fisheries restrictions. At the same time, construction of wind farms involves high levels of anthropogenic noise, likely disturbing and/or deterring pelagic fish. Here, we investigated whether bottom-moored echosounders are a suitable tool for studying the effects of impulsive – intermittent, high-intensity – anthropogenic noise on pelagic fish around wind farms and we explored the possible nature of their responses. Three different wind farms along the Dutch and Belgian coast were examined, one with exposure to the passing by of an experimental seismic survey with a full-scale airgun array, one with pile driving activity in an adjacent wind farm construction site and one control site without exposure. Two bottom-moored echosounders were placed in each wind farm and recorded fish presence and behaviour before, during and after the exposures. The echosounders were successful in detecting variation in the number of fish schools and their behaviour. During the seismic survey exposure there were significantly fewer, but more cohesive, schools than before, whereas during pile driving fish swam shallower with more cohesive schools. However, the types and magnitudes of response patterns were also observed at the control site with no impulsive sound exposure. We therefore stress the need for thorough replication beyond single case studies, before we can conclude that impulsive sounds, from either seismic surveys or pile driving, are a disturbing factor for pelagic fish in otherwise attractive habitat around wind farms.

Anthropogenic noise in the oceans is disturbing marine life. Among other groups, pelagic fish are likely to be affected by sound from human activities, but so far have received relatively little attention. Offshore wind farms have become numerous and will become even more abundant in the next decades. Wind farms can be interesting to pelagic fish due to food abundance or fisheries restrictions. At the same time, construction of wind farms involves high levels of anthropogenic noise, likely disturbing and/or deterring pelagic fish. Here, we investigated whether bottom-moored echosounders are a suitable tool for studying the effects of impulsive – intermittent, high-intensity – anthropogenic noise on pelagic fish around wind farms and we explored the possible nature of their responses. Three different wind farms along the Dutch and Belgian coast were examined, one with exposure to the passing by of an experimental seismic survey with a full-scale airgun array, one with pile driving activity in an adjacent wind farm construction site and one control site without exposure. Two bottom-moored echosounders were placed in each wind farm and recorded fish presence and behaviour before, during and after the exposures. The echosounders were successful in detecting variation in the number of fish schools and their behaviour. During the seismic survey exposure there were significantly fewer, but more cohesive, schools than before, whereas during pile driving fish swam shallower with more cohesive schools. However, the types and magnitudes of response patterns were also observed at the control site with no impulsive sound exposure. We therefore stress the need for thorough replication beyond single case studies, before we can conclude that impulsive sounds, from either seismic surveys or pile driving, are a disturbing factor for pelagic fish in otherwise attractive habitat around wind farms.

Tropospheric ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant with the potential to alter plant metabolism. The direct effects of ozone on plant phenotype may alter interactions with other organisms, such as pollinators, and, consequently, affect plant reproductive success. In a set of greenhouse experiments, we tested whether exposure of plants to a high level of ozone affected their phenological development, their attractiveness to four different pollinators (mason bees, honeybees, hoverflies and bumblebees) and, ultimately, their reproductive success. Exposure of plants to ozone accelerated flowering, particularly on plants that were growing in autumn, when light and temperature cues, that commonly promote flowering, were weaker. Simultaneously, there was a tendency for ozone-exposed plants to disinvest in vegetative growth. Plant exposure to ozone did not substantially affect pollinator preference, but bumblebees had a tendency to visit more flowers on ozone-exposed plants, an effect that was driven by the fact that these plants tended to have more open flowers, meaning a stronger attraction signal. Honeybees spent more time per flower on ozone-exposed plants than on control plants. Acceleration of flower production and the behavioural responses of pollinators to ozone-exposed plants resulted in retained reproductive fitness of plants pollinated by bumblebees, honeybees and mason bees, despite the negative effects of ozone on plant growth. Plants that were pollinated by hoverflies had a reduction in reproductive fitness in response to ozone. In a natural setting, acceleration of flowering by ozone might foster desynchronization between plant and pollinator activities. This can have a strong impact on plants with short flowering periods and on plants that, unlike wild mustard, lack compensatory mechanisms to cope with the absence of pollinator activity in the beginning of flowering.

Tropospheric ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant with the potential to alter plant metabolism. The direct effects of ozone on plant phenotype may alter interactions with other organisms, such as pollinators, and, consequently, affect plant reproductive success. In a set of greenhouse experiments, we tested whether exposure of plants to a high level of ozone affected their phenological development, their attractiveness to four different pollinators (mason bees, honeybees, hoverflies and bumblebees) and, ultimately, their reproductive success. Exposure of plants to ozone accelerated flowering, particularly on plants that were growing in autumn, when light and temperature cues, that commonly promote flowering, were weaker. Simultaneously, there was a tendency for ozone-exposed plants to disinvest in vegetative growth. Plant exposure to ozone did not substantially affect pollinator preference, but bumblebees had a tendency to visit more flowers on ozone-exposed plants, an effect that was driven by the fact that these plants tended to have more open flowers, meaning a stronger attraction signal. Honeybees spent more time per flower on ozone-exposed plants than on control plants. Acceleration of flower production and the behavioural responses of pollinators to ozone-exposed plants resulted in retained reproductive fitness of plants pollinated by bumblebees, honeybees and mason bees, despite the negative effects of ozone on plant growth. Plants that were pollinated by hoverflies had a reduction in reproductive fitness in response to ozone. In a natural setting, acceleration of flowering by ozone might foster desynchronization between plant and pollinator activities. This can have a strong impact on plants with short flowering periods and on plants that, unlike wild mustard, lack compensatory mechanisms to cope with the absence of pollinator activity in the beginning of flowering.