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Identifying and Analyzing the Influence of Driving Forces on the Regional Development of Alborz Province with the Scenario-Based Planning Approach 全文
2018
Rahnama, Mohammad Rahim | Shakarami, Kiyan | Abbasi, Hamed
The present study uses a structural analysis method to seek out the most likely scenarios for the development of Alborz province on the horizon of 2032. The required data and information for the research have been collected through a territorial development study (Survey Questionnaire) as well as expert interviews within the framework of the Delphi model. The statistical samples of the study were 30 employees of relevant institutions and urban-regional researchers. For data analysis, MICMAC software has been used to analyze the interactions of variables, and Morphol software has been used to compile scenarios. Finally, the results showed that the issue of water resources and drought, and the issue of the destruction of gardens of the province are due to the irregularity of construction. Similarly, the issue of industrial production, environmental pollution increase, and the burnout of factories in the horizon of 2032, with three replications of the catastrophe scenario in the developed scenarios are three serious and major threats for the development of Alborz province up to the horizon of 2032. Nonetheless, the capability of being at the neighborhood of Tehran province and the use of demographic, economic, and other capacities of Tehran province in all three scenarios were identified as the desirable scenarios. Also, in each of the three scenarios, the capabilities of the "big and strategic industries" and "province tourism" were identified as the most intermediate scenarios, which indicates the importance of these three capabilities in the development of the province in the horizon of 2032.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Evaluating Ecological Networks of Urban Landscape (Case Study: Karaj Metropolis) 全文
2018
Mohammadyari, Fatemeh | Mirsanjari, Mir Mehrdad | Zarandian, Ardovan
Landscape fragmentation is the most important challenge in urban development. This challenge prevents the flow of materials and energy in the region. These changes affect ecological characteristics. In this regard, ecological networks are considered as tools for conservation planning. Therefore, satellite images were used in the years 2006, 2011 and 2017 to evaluate the ecological networks of Karaj Metropolis. The Classification and preparation of land map conducted based on land cover and with the support vector machine algorithm. Landmarks were also used to assess the status quo and the process of changing heterogeneity, continuity, and communication-isolation networks in previous years. The results showed that the trend of criteria changing in the study area is not desirable. The inappropriate process of changing of Space landscape heterogeneity criteria, the conjunction of the same spots across the land, and the optimal communication reduce the ecological function and the consequence is a decline in the sustainability of ecological networks. Also, due to the decreasing trend of metrics in green spots, especially human green, and the increasing trend of metrics in construction and open spots, in sum, it can be concluded that the ecological function and the ecological network characteristics of the landscape are following a descending trend.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Redefining the Role of Small- and Middle-Sized Cities in the Regional Development Process; Introducing a Spatial Based Applied Method (Case Study: Kurdistan Province) 全文
2018
Ghorbani, Ramin | Pourahmad, Ahmad | Hatami Nezhad, Hossein
Much quantitative research (and some qualitative cases) has been done on the role of small- and medium-sized cities in regional development. The present article is also in this line, but with a slight change in the structure of the breakdown in the approach to the subject and the analysis of the problem, and the multi-faceted analysis of the data using the Fuzzy Inference System. The purpose of this research, with regard to the title, is developmental-applicable and has a descriptive-analytical approach. The FIS application and increasing approach has four stages (in general): its Database and Fuzzification; the rules base; the engine; and the Defuzzification. In the glimpse (Knowledge Base), regional development indicators (10 indicators) and variables (more than 70 variables) in four pillars of regional development (economic, physical, infrastructure and human development) for the small- and middle-sized cities of Kurdistan province (9 cities of the city centers Except for Saravabad) were selected and mapped in 2006 and 2016, and then a detailed analysis of the process was performed on the data. The final result of this paper is that although fluctuations in the development of the inland region of the province have been observed, regional development changes (relying on economic indicators) have been consistent with changes in the urban hierarchy (demographic projections). Thus, with the decline of concentration and concentration in Sanandaj, we see an increase in the role of small- and middle-sized towns in the urban-regional development of the province.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Investigating the Dimensions of Water Scarcity Using the Water Poverty Index (WPI) and its Comparative Analysis in Qom District 全文
2018
Talebi, Hossein | Amini, Abbas
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the situation in Qom and its regions in terms of the water poverty index, which identifies the zonal differences and the dimensions and strengths and weaknesses of each. The basis for determining the Water Poverty Index is the Sullivan method, which is a weight linear combination of components (resources, costs, environment, capacity, and access). The required data were collected through related organizations and analyzed in the framework of this method. There is a difference between the five sections of the county in terms of poverty. Weakness in resources is a common feature among zones, which is significant in some zones and moderate in the others. Also, in terms of human capacity, almost all regions have a good status that can be regarded as a strength. Water consumption management, as the most important option, should be at the forefront of planning and considering the inability to expand water resources. Currently, more than twice as much of renewable water resources are being extracted. The best way to manage water poverty is to make optimal use of available resources and capacities and to focus on research principles, rather than the expansion of water resources in a variety of ways, which can increase the territorial imbalances, domestic disturbance, and lack of control on consumption and so on.
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