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Drought Forecasting for Future Periods Using LARS-WG Model: The Case Study of Kermanshah City 全文
2021
Heshmati, Sara | Ramezani Etedali, Hadi
The prediction of climactic changes is of great importance due to their destructive effects on aquatic, environmental, economic, and social resources. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to predict the climactic changes of Kermanshah city using micro-scale general atmospheric circulation models accessible in LARS-WG6 (GFDL-CM3, MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5) model in scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the 2020 to 2100 period based on the benchmark period of 1980-2010. In order to evaluate the data forecasted in LARS-WG model, the error rate of the observed and predicted data was addressed using R2, RMSE, MSE, and MAD criteria. The results showed that LARS-WG model had the needed capability to predict climactic data in future. In the secondary models, the MPI-ESM-MR model in scenario RCP4.5 showed a higher reliability rate compared to other secondary models evaluated in the study. Moreover, all models indicated increases in the average minimum and maximum temperature and forecasted changes in rainfall pattern in future periods in the studied area. Then, the SPI and De Martonne indices were calculated for all models. According to SPI index, all evaluated climactic models demonstrated that by the year 2100, the years with normal index would decrease while the years with dry conditions would increase. Moreover, based on De Martonne index, the GFDL model in RCP8.5 scenario estimated the climactic changes level more than other models, and predicted that dry and semi-dry years will be more than wet years. Contrarily, the MIRO model in RCP45 scenario acted more optimistically and predicted less climactic changes.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Spatial Analysis of Regional Development of the Country based on Social Indicators 全文
2020
Jafari, Firouz | Karami, Sonya | Hatami, Afshar | Asadzadeh, Haniyeh
Understanding how to distribute economic, social, cultural and other opportunities as first step in spatial development planning can improve service delivery and increase equilibrium between regions. This research aimed at study and analysis of 31 provinces of Iran based on social indicatros enjoyment. Therefore, the present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method of research. Required data collected through the statistical yearbook of 1395 (2016) in the form of 52 important social indicators including social, cultural, welfare, educational and health components. Shannon entropy, coefficient of variation (C.V), WASPAS used to Wheightining of criterias, analysis of indicators dispersion and determining the level of development of provinces respectively in the context of MATLAB. The result shows that there is a lack of social development balance between Iran provinces. Tehran, Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi and Fars are four provinces that placed at higher level of social development and Alborz, Zanjan, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari, Semnan, South Khorasan, North Khorasan, Ilam and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad are placed at the most deprived areas of the country in terms of social indicators. Overall, the results show that social development status in Iran's provinces is not synonymous with social and spatial justice and requires proper and effective attention and management.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Assessment of Ecological Capacity of Kangavar County Geographical Space Based on Natural Environment Properties 全文
2020
Rahmanabadi, Hassan | Hossein Zadeh, Mohammad Mehdi | Mirbagheri, Babak
The assessment of the ecological potential of the environment is to determine or predict the potential power and natural land use type. Environmental assessment is therefore a tool for strategic land use planning. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ecological potential of urban, rural and industrial land use in Kangavar city with an area of 883.9 km2 using Makhdoom ecological model. In the process of research, the required data were collected, produced and produced. After creating and combining the maps in the GIS software in a multi-hybrid way, the maps of environmental units were constructed and the ecological potential of the area was evaluated using the features of each environmental unit. To do this, the indices and variables that could be involved in each of these models were examined. To classify the ecological potential of the area for urban, rural and industrial uses and to map the power of different classes, 18 parameters were used as criteria for weighting and power determination. The results of Kangavar city's ecological assessment indicate that a 100.26 square kilometer area (11.34%) of Kangavar city is suitable for urban, rural and industrial use for 1st class. Also in the city, 483.1 square kilometers (54.64%) is quite suitable for 2nd floor. By comparing the existing and optimal land use map, it was determined that the area of urban land use development in inappropriate zones is 2.5 square kilometers.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Logic Scoring of Preference and Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation in Capability of Natural Resources Conservation 全文
2020
Mazloum, Bibizahra | Pourmanafi, Saeid | Soffianian, Alireza | Salmanmahiny, Abdollrasoul
Evaluation of land capability is a way of knowledge of nature and preventing its destruction. The Logic scoring of preference method is one of the new approaches in land evaluation. This method consists of three main components: the attributes tree, the preliminary criteria and the aggregation structure. Criteria and sub-criteria of the conservation model, criteria weightings and standardization functions were determined by the resources reviewing, environmental attributes of the area and consulting with local experts. Then, the decision tree is formed, after that, the sub-criteria, criteria and attributes were weighted. Their replacement capability was determined. Replaceabilityorsimultaneitymeans identifying importance of criteria and sub-criteria in decision making. So, more or less effect of criteria was determined on the final decision by the ranges of positive and negative numbers. Aggregation of criteria and sub-criteria were done by Weighted Average Power Method. Conservation maps were prepared with two scenarios without_with the replaceability criteria. Scenario result of without replaceability shows the region's conservation value better than the replaceability scenario. The research results showed that rivers and aquatic ecosystems, scarce native plants and Mountains with high slope and shallow soil are sensitive to degradation. The proposed GIS-based LSP method is an enhanced MCE approach that represents an excellent tool for discussion and deliberation among stakeholders, decision makers, land-use planners and other experts.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Investigation and Evaluation of Environmental Potential in Spatial Distribution of Rural Settlements in Maragheh City Using AHP Fuzzy Technique 全文
2020
Azar, Ali
Ecological condition and natural potentials play an important role in sustainable development and the spatial patterns of rural settlements. Therefore, in order to reduce the adverse effects of environmental conditions and plan for the improvement of the residential status, it is important to know the sustainability of the villages. On the other hand, it can minimize the environmental hazards. This study is an applied in terms of the purpose and it is a descriptive-analytical study in terms of nature and method. Documentation and field observation were used to collect the data. To do this, the data were collected from books, documents, organizations and baseline maps from different organizations (GIS). To measure the environmental feasibility of the villages, measurements like altitude, slope, slope direction, fault distance, access to water resources (river), soil type and climate were used. The AHP hierarchical analysis model was used to obtain the relative weight of each variable and the Fuzzy Overall logic was used to integrate the layers.The results of the study show that 121 villages (68%) are in a stable and favorable environment in terms of environmental potentials and they have 62364 population (73.6); 49 villages (27.5%) with 20516 inhabitants (24.2%)have moderate sustainability; 8 villages (4.5%) are in poor and unstable condition and 1850 people (2.2%) live in unstable villages.Also, in terms of sustainability, the villages located in the center and west of Maragheh are in a better position than that of the east and southeast villages. There was a significant correlation between elevation, slope, distance from river and climate with the distribution of rural areas.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Science and Technology Special Regions; New Approach in Sustainable Development (Case: Science and Technology Special Region of Yazd) 全文
2020
Khosravaninezhad, Samaneh | Alizadeh, Azadeh | Noghsan Mohamadi, Mohamad R. | Akbari, Reza
The emergence of knowledge-based city-regions as the paradigm of the knowledge-based economy is one of the effective paradigms for the sustainable development of future cities. These regions aim to synthesis the functional, physical, and institutional components of knowledge clusters with urban activities to maximize beneficiary of the unique characteristics of each region. In regional development, the prerequisite for achieving goals in these regions is spatial-physical planning and how they spatially organized their activities and functions in the territorial area. The main question of this study is "to achieve sustainable development, what are the spatial-physical considerations in Iran special regions in general and Yazd in particular?" It identifies the most important actions (physical spatial, transport, housing and environment) of science and technology regions plans on global scale by the method of secondary analysis and based on the content analysis. comparison the results in Yazd Special region with others in Iran indicates the high emphasis on economic aspects, relative attention to environmental issues, and minimal attention to quality of spatial organization and the relationship between main functional focuses and the cities/regions, transport and housing. Considering the unique characteristics of each region, reviewing their function and defining their legal position in the hierarchy of planning system in Iran, explaining the goals and priorities of development in a comprehensive plan to stabilize these regions in the urban sustainable development is indispensable.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]The Ecologic Capability Evaluation of Golestan Province Lands Through a Land Use Approach to Develop Agricultural Uses 全文
2020
Faraji, Amin | Sahneh, Fariba
The ecologic capability evaluation determines which human activities can be performed on which area of land and conversely, which activities are impossible, economically unviable, or detrimental to environmental sustainability. This study set out to evaluate the land ecologic capability in Golestan province of Iran to develop agriculture (cultivating wheat) through land use planning and to investigate the factors effective on the agriculture ecologic capability. The study was exploratory in terms of method and applied library research method for data collection purposes. The identified factors include climate, precipitation, temperature, evaporation, topography (altitude), slope, slope direction, land use, water resources, flood zones, land types, erosion, and soil. Then, the optimal location of land for wheat cultivation was done in four stages using ARC GIS software and its tests in order to zone the lands appropriate for what cultivation. To this end, the raw data of the intended layers was extracted and examined, and the areas appropriate for cultivation were determined and classified. The appropriate values were assigned to the aforementioned layers so as to generate the final layer map to zone the lands appropriate for wheat cultivation. Finally, via overlaying the wheat-cultivated lands on the intended layers, the ecologic capability map of the area was made. These were then classified into three categories, namely lands with appropriate and high capability (about 13%), lands with medium capability (over 80%), and lands with low or no capability (about 5%). The intermediate territory of the province has the most fertile lands with semi-humid, temperate Mediterranean climate (Alborz highland plains). As a result, the best cultivation areas of this province are located in its intermediary and southern parts that have deep, high quality agricultural soil and adequate rainfall.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Identifying Development Priorities for Balanced Regional Development Using Network Centrality Indicators 全文
2020
Aghaei, Fatemeh | Soltani, Ali | Hosseinpoor, Mohammad
Equitable distribution of services at the regional scale and achieving a balanced spatial structure in the region are among the most important goals of sustainable regional planning, especially in developing countries such as Iran. In this regard, one of the most important strategies and policies in regional spatial planning is the decentralization of development. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important urban areas of Fars province in order to determine the priorities of development and decentralization of the unipolar development of the province. To this end, the regional network modelling based on graph theory and the concepts of social network analysis are used to conduct the spatial analysis of Fars province. The data used in this study includes the Fars province road network extracted from the OSM open source system, as well as the spatial information of the urban and rural areas of Fars province extracted from the website of the Statistics Center of Iran. Regarding research methods, Pandas Library and NetworkX Library were used in the Python programming platform to form the network graph and analyze the centrality indicators, while ARC GIS software was for final processing and visualization of data and information. According to thenetwork centrality indices and the location of the province cities, notwithstanding Shiraz as the main hub of development in the province, Zarghan, Sadra, Kavar, Lepui, Khane Zenian and Noorabad are the main development priorities. In addition, the Shiraz-Marvdasht and Shiraz-Khaneh Zenian roads were determined to be the most important transportation paths and communication corridors. The results and findings of this study showed that network-based modeling and the use of graph-based analytics (in particular, social network analysis techniques) can be useful and effective as new analytical methods in regional studies and planning.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Locating Multi-Purpose Urban Shelters Based on the Principles of Passive Defense: The Case Study of the District One of Ahvaz Metropolis 全文
2020
Amanpour, Saeed | Parvizian, Alireza
Nowadays, the vulnerability of urban settlements is one of the urban security risk factors. Meanwhile, shelter is one of the most important components of increasing the safety factor in cities in the face of hazards. In the present study, which was conducted using a "descriptive-analytical" method, an attempt was made to find the most appropriate place for the construction of an urban shelter in District One of Ahvaz metropolis. Theoretical data of the research was collected via library research, and after extracting the indicators, the spatial analysis of each index was obtained using GIS modeling. The analysis shows that the best places to build an urban shelter according to specific fuzzy patterns are located in the proximity of the Museum of Contemporary Art, adjacent to the Laleha Cultural and Educational Center, along the Khuzestan Agricultural Jihad Organization, Pars Hospital and Shahid Rajaei Hospital, near Hazrat Khadijeh High School, Hajar Technical Schools, etc.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]The Role of Water Resources in Directing the Crop Management: The Case Study of Koohdasht County 全文
2020
Beiranvandi, Vahid | Jahdi, Roghayeh
The dependence of the farmers and agricultural life on water resources and the existing crises has a direct relationship with various challenges of this macro-social structure. In the global water crisis, the cultivation type is simultaneously the major culprit and victim. The purpose of the present study is to examine the role of hydrological and population-related factors in preventing the aridification of an area as one of the most devastating environmental disasters. By its selection of the appropriate crop for any area (which prevents water wasting), water resources management can prevent the dependence of that area on the agricultural crops of other areas and help decrease unemployment rate. In order to manage the effect of water demand on the balance of water resources flowing in the Kuhdasht County, the topographic data was combined with other data through the geographical information system and using enhanced AHPFUZZY method. The purpose was to weight the hydrological and population-related data (including the sub-criteria of river, well, spring, residence, people, men, and women) and determine the location priorities based on the field data, satellite images, and the data existing in the Lorestan province related to the amount of water needed by various products. The intention was to create jobs while protecting natural resources. In addition to the prevention of underground water levels and the destruction of wells, springs, and aqueducts, the results of this study specify the conditions for scientific and principled cultivation, reduction of poverty, and creation of jobs through planned management in the research area based on the consideration of crop type, cultivation method, and cultivation time. According to the obtained results along with the consideration of the fact that agricultural activities are heavily practiced in the area (where dryland farming is performed in mid-level grasslands), the management of the area under study was classified into five levels, namely very weak, weak, average, good, and very good. This analysis can help the land managers to change the existing conditions toward a rule-based management of water resources.
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