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Zoning the Risk of Flood in Birjand
2019
Saberifar, Rostam | Shokri, Homer
Physical expansion of cities, particularly those that have experienced unusual growth due to economic, social, and political transformations, has led to numerous problems. To this end, the purpose of this study was to investigate conditions of Birjand City regarding flooding and hazard zoning caused by this important natural event. The present study is applied regarding the objective and descriptive-analytic considering its methodology. The study was descriptive-analytic and performed through prediction of the scope of damages caused by floods and based on hazard zoning. Data gathered regarding land use, population density, features of existing watercourses, slope, residential and population density, CN coefficient, runoff, the age of buildings, open spaces, and other influencing components. Collected data were weighed after correction and conversion, and required maps were prepared after conducting paired comparisons and determination of eventual coefficients for each layer. AHP model and associated software, particularly Expert Choice, and ArcGIS, were used to determine final weights and coefficients. According to the results, given that development of Birjand City has been done on the sub-basin of the existing watercourse, all the city is exposed to the risk of flooding. However, southern and southeastern zones with almost 20% of the city area are subject to high and very high risk; northwestern and southeastern with 50% of the area are subject to average risk; and other zones of the city with less than 30% of area are subject to low and very low risk. As a result, the operation of flood control and flood warning systems in areas with greater vulnerability should be considered, while illegal occupation of flooding basins and watercourses should be dealt with.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]The Analysis of Structural Landscape Changes in Tabriz City Using Landscape Ecology Principles with an Emphasis on the Connectivity Concept
2019
Mahmoudzadeh, Hassan | Masoudi, Hassan
Urban societies are complex landscapes that face unbalanced and exogenous growth and are rapidly changing as a result of population growth and urbanization. That is to say, non-urban, large swaths of land are consumed by cities and urban settlements, and over time they are fragmented into smaller pieces. Therefore, the present study was designed to detect and evaluate changes in the landscape structure of Tabriz metropolitan area and to evaluate the performance of landscape metrics in analyzing changes. To this end, first the land use maps for 1984, 2000 and 2018 were prepared using Landsat satellite imagery. Then, in order to analyze the changes, a combination of Landscape metrics including NP, CA, PLAND, LPI, ED, MPS, LSI, and COHESION was computed at two levels of land class and landscape using Fragstats4.2 software. The results showed that the lands used for urban settlement during this period have had the most changes and growth, in contrast to agricultural farms, gardens and green-space which have had a downward trend and have been converted to other uses. Also, the number and density of patches have increased over time, leading to the fragmentation of the landscape. On the other hand, the average size of patches belonging to constructed lands and agricultural and horticultural lands respectively increased and decreased, and caused more distortion and complexity of Tabriz city landscape through an increase in the landscape shape index. In general, the analysis of land use maps and landscape metrics clearly reveals the effects of human activities and urbanization on the surrounding environment, and the results indicate that the landscape of Tabriz has got more granular, more complex and geometrically more irregular. Then, with this decreasing connectivity, it has become more fragmented.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Planning the Natural Context of Ecological Networks (A Case Study of Urban Landscape of Karaj)
2019
Hassani, Sholeh | Barghjelveh, Shahindokht
The qualitative study of the urbanization process indicates that inappropriate development has caused a great deal of damage to the urban landscape structure. The problem solving tool is planning the ecological networks as matter and energy pathways. Planning natural elements of the structure, including green and open spots and corridors, will guide the researcher toward achieving research goals such as the conservation and restoration of natural resources and the improvement of cybernetic forces to enhance performance sustainability, structural equilibrium, and habitat variability. The methodological model of research in the Karaj metropolis identified flexible elements to strengthen ecological processes. Then, adopting the ecological-sociological approach and forming the urban habitat network, it was applied for sustainability. GIS software was used to map and digitize the data, RS to capture satellite images, and FRAGSTATE 4.2 to analyze the metrics changes in the years 2008 and 2018. The results of Bayer spot changes were -7.98% for CA, +5.79% for NP, and -1.5% for Cohesion, while residential spot changes were -24.15% for CA, +26.16% for NP, -3.96% for Cohesion, and green-space spot changes were -38.8% for CA, +275.5% for NP increase, and -34.0% for Cohesion. These indicated increased discontinuity, decreased natural bedding connectivity, and decreased ecological performance along with its adverse effect on social structure. Thus, using a nature-based planning, we can witness the network dynamics of natural/man-made communication/isolation networks over time, and by establishing a holistic, bio-ethical culture, we can overcome social vacuum. This way, Karaj can move in the excellent sustainable development path.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]An Investigation and Analysis of the Effect of Urmia Lake Water Level Reduction on the Development Levels of Surrounding Counties
2019
Mohammadi Hamidi, Somayeh | Nazmfar, Hossein | Yazdani, Mohammadi Hassan | Rezayan Ghyeh Bashi, Ahad
The discussion of environmental change is currently one of the most important challenges which the international community faces. This issue comprises one of the most extensive scientific, economic, social, and even political debates at different global levels. Severe and sustained droughts have threatened many parts of the globe at different times and have led to rapid and profound changes at the economic and social development levels. The Middle East, especially Iran, has been no exception in this regard. The drying up of water resources, including lakes, is a prominent feature of these changes that has caused problems for the surrounding habitats. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the status of development indicators in 22 cities in Urmia Lake catchment area. In recent decades, water level has decreased significantly and drought level has increased in this lake. This study is an applied research project in terms of purpose and a descriptive-analytical one in terms of methodology. Data and information were collected from sources and documents of the Census Bureau for the years 2006 and 2016. Also, Vikor method and Moran's spatial autocorrelation index in Arc Gis software were used for the data analysis. The results of the statistical calculations showed that the development levels in the catchment area have transformed dramatically over the last 10 years, from the cluster distribution of 2006 to the dispersed distribution pattern of 2016. Moreover, the employment rate has declined and the unemployment rate has increased.Comparing the various statistics, one can clearly see the negative effects of the Lake water level decline on catchment area counties over the last 10 years. The gradual decline in the Lake water level (followed by a decrease in the employment rate and an increase in the unemployment rate) is the main reason for the imbalance in the development of the region.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Investigation of regional resilience using spatial analysis and WASPAS hybrid model (Case Study: Townships of Khuzestan Province)
2018
Faraji, Amin | Arvin, Mahmoud | Atash-Afrooz, Nasrin
Natural and human hazards have caused vulnerability and resilience concepts receive much attention. Investigating the vulnerability and resilience of cities and regions shows the readiness and capacity of cities and regions to reduce the effects of disasters. If the situation of the city and the region is high in terms of resilience, Infrastructure, economic and social conditions of the residents have the ability to recover and return faster to a state of equilibrium. Besides, emergency services would be done properly. In this research, resilience was investigated on a regional scale with the purpose of assessment regional resilience dimensions in the townships of Khuzestan province. The research method is analytical-descriptive and in terms of purpose is applied. The data were extracted from the Planning and Budget Organization of Khuzestan Province`s database. The data are divided into economic, social, infrastructural, health, and environmental dimensions and 26 indicators. In order to analyze the data and weigh indices, Shanon entropy was employed. The townships were then ranked by use of WASPAS technique. The results showed that Ahvaz, Dezful, Khorramshahr, Shadegan, Shoosh, Azadegan, Shoshtar, Abadan, Izeh, Ramhormoz, Andimeshk, Behbahan, Baghmalek, Mahshahr, Ramshir, Omidieh, Karoun, Hamidieh, Masjed Soleiman, Bawi, Gotwand, Lali, Hendijan, Indica, Haftkel, Hoveiza, and Aghajari ranked 1st to 27th respectively. Undoubtedly, based on the Khuzestan province`s special position and its multi-cultural aspect, despite its rich natural resources, border situation and putting away the resiliency would result in a big crisis for the whole system. Also, the results showed that Khuzestan province resiliency related to spatial inequality.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Scenario Development in Realizability Territorial Spatial Arrangement (Case Study: Khorasan-e-Razavi)
2018
Mousavi, Mir Najaf | Ghaderi, Reza | Taghilo, Ali Akbar | Kahaki, Fatemehsadat
Future studies in Territorial planning focus on finding key factors, drivers and uncertainties in the development of regions in the planning space. This is in the way that the planner can map and manage a desirable future by having them as a control lever. The purpose of this study is to identify the effective factors on the planning of Khorasan-e- Razavi province, to identify the key variables of the province's development and finally to develop effective scenarios for the province's planning. The research process is practical in terms of purpose, and the research method is descriptive-analytic. The nature of the data is qualitative. The data are collected through survey and from documents and records. Data analysis is based on futures research techniques including environmental scanning, structural analysis, and cross-impact analysis. The results of the research show that among the developed scenarios, province planning will face 22 strong adaptive scenarios, 2740 weak adaptive scenarios, and 1837 inconsistent scenarios, in the future. Of the 22 possible scenarios, eight scenarios have a favorable status, two scenarios have interstitial status, and 12 scenarios are in an unfavorable situation. Between the favorable scenarios, Scenario 1 is the best and the most likely scenario ahead of the province and all of its possible probabilities are quite desirable.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Ecological impacts assessment of land use change on the natural structure of the Gharesoo Watershed
2018
Mehri, Azade | Salmanmahiny, Abdolrasoul | Mikaeili Tabrizi, Alireza | Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed | Sadoddin, Amir
In order to evaluate the impacts of land use change, the quantification of landscape structure through relevant metrics can be used. These metrics are appropriate owing to the fact that they are measured easily and take low cost and time. The goal of the present study is to investigate the ecological impacts of land use change on the natural structure of the Gharesoo Watershed in order to identify the highly affected areas. Firstly, the amount of land use change between 1984 and 2013 was calculated. Then, landscape metrics were used to investigate the spatial patterns of land use change. Finally, an ecological impact index based on current land use was established. The results showed that during the period studied, areas of forest and agriculture have decreased by 12 and 5 percent respectively, and other uses including residential-industrial, rangeland, and transportations have increased by 292, 143, and 176 percent respectively. Landscape metrics analysis indicated a decrease in compactness and an increase in fragmentation and degradation of the landscape. According to the ecological impact index map, approximately 28 percent of the region is exposed to high and very high impacts. These areas can be used as a base for future studies and may be earmarked for intervention measures such as improving land management and decreasing fragmentation.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Identifying and Analyzing the Influence of Driving Forces on the Regional Development of Alborz Province with the Scenario-Based Planning Approach
2018
Rahnama, Mohammad Rahim | Shakarami, Kiyan | Abbasi, Hamed
The present study uses a structural analysis method to seek out the most likely scenarios for the development of Alborz province on the horizon of 2032. The required data and information for the research have been collected through a territorial development study (Survey Questionnaire) as well as expert interviews within the framework of the Delphi model. The statistical samples of the study were 30 employees of relevant institutions and urban-regional researchers. For data analysis, MICMAC software has been used to analyze the interactions of variables, and Morphol software has been used to compile scenarios. Finally, the results showed that the issue of water resources and drought, and the issue of the destruction of gardens of the province are due to the irregularity of construction. Similarly, the issue of industrial production, environmental pollution increase, and the burnout of factories in the horizon of 2032, with three replications of the catastrophe scenario in the developed scenarios are three serious and major threats for the development of Alborz province up to the horizon of 2032. Nonetheless, the capability of being at the neighborhood of Tehran province and the use of demographic, economic, and other capacities of Tehran province in all three scenarios were identified as the desirable scenarios. Also, in each of the three scenarios, the capabilities of the "big and strategic industries" and "province tourism" were identified as the most intermediate scenarios, which indicates the importance of these three capabilities in the development of the province in the horizon of 2032.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Investigating the Relationship between the Spreading of Human Settlements and Instability of Agricultural Water resources in the Zayandeh-Rud Basin
2018
Rahmani Fazli, Abdolreza | Salehian, Saeid
The Zayandeh-Rud Basin, placed in the center of Iran, is one of the areas with water instability problems. In the last decade, the water resources of the basin have decreased. Thus, that part of the length of the river in the middle and downstream of the water flow has dried or temporarily turned off, and the allocation of agricultural water to the agricultural lands of these sectors has decreased significantly. In this study, ground-level land use changes were analyzed through Landsat satellite imagery analysis in 2000, and 2014. These periods coincided with the periods before and after the occurrence of the instability of water resources in the basin. The researchers specified the research area and then divided it into three parts, naming upper, middle, and downstream. At the next step, these parts were compared in the form of 6 categories of use. According to the results, during the period, along with the occurrence of water resource instability, construction and residential land use across the rangelands has increased, and land use of pasture has decreased. Agricultural coverage has increased in the upstream, but it has decreased in the middle and lower parts. Besides, the empty and blank land use on the upstream has decreased, and it has increased in the lower parts. Regarding the results, some of the instability of agricultural water resources in the basin could be attributed to the expansion of settlements, increase in water consumption throughout the area, and increase in agricultural activities in the upstream basin.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]Evaluating Ecological Networks of Urban Landscape (Case Study: Karaj Metropolis)
2018
Mohammadyari, Fatemeh | Mirsanjari, Mir Mehrdad | Zarandian, Ardovan
Landscape fragmentation is the most important challenge in urban development. This challenge prevents the flow of materials and energy in the region. These changes affect ecological characteristics. In this regard, ecological networks are considered as tools for conservation planning. Therefore, satellite images were used in the years 2006, 2011 and 2017 to evaluate the ecological networks of Karaj Metropolis. The Classification and preparation of land map conducted based on land cover and with the support vector machine algorithm. Landmarks were also used to assess the status quo and the process of changing heterogeneity, continuity, and communication-isolation networks in previous years. The results showed that the trend of criteria changing in the study area is not desirable. The inappropriate process of changing of Space landscape heterogeneity criteria, the conjunction of the same spots across the land, and the optimal communication reduce the ecological function and the consequence is a decline in the sustainability of ecological networks. Also, due to the decreasing trend of metrics in green spots, especially human green, and the increasing trend of metrics in construction and open spots, in sum, it can be concluded that the ecological function and the ecological network characteristics of the landscape are following a descending trend.
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