By constructing a regional water–energy–food interaction model, from the perspectives of supply and demand, this study has revealed both the coupling and synergistic effects of the three major elements of water–energy–food at the regional level and the interaction between internal and external resources in the region, and explored the sustainable development of the region under the association of the three major elements of water–energy–food. In this paper, the energy supply and demand measurement model and the optimal regional total cost measurement model were used to optimize the regional total cost measurement. This paper briefly introduces the concepts, application scope, and limitations of scenario analysis. Because the future development of society is very uncertain, it is a very useful tool for predicting and calculating the future scenario and sustainable development of the region. Agricultural water accounted for 55% of the total water resources, and industrial water accounted for 18%. This paper took the main grain-producing areas as an example and enriched the existing research on the water–energy–food relationship to a certain extent by analyzing the current situation and influencing factors of the synergistic development of water–energy–food systems, offering reference to the subsequent related research. HIGHLIGHTS In this paper, the energy supply and demand measurement model and the optimal regional total cost measurement model were used to optimize the regional total cost measurement.; On this basis, the regional water–energy–food system is empirically analyzed.;

In the Middle East and North Africa, food security and water security are tightly entwined. In particular, choices about the extent to which food security policies rely on trade rather than domestically produced staples have stark consequences for the region's limited water resources. This paper builds on previous modeling results comparing the cost and benefits of policies to protect consumers against surging international wheat prices, and expands the analysis to consider the consequences of the policies for water resources. A self-sufficiency policy is analyzed as well. Results suggest that trade-based food security policies have no significant effect on the sustainability of water resources, while the costs of policies based on self-sufficiency for water resources are high. The analysis also shows that while information about the water footprint of alternative production systems is helpful, a corresponding economic footprint that fully measures the resource cost of water is needed to concisely rank alternative policies in economic terms that are consistent with sustainable outcomes.

Sustainable and resilient food systems depend on sustainable and resilient water management. Resilience is characterised by overlapping decision spaces and scales and interdependencies among water users and competing sectors. Increasing water scarcity, due to climate change and other environmental and societal changes, makes putting caps on the consumption of water resources indispensable. Implementation requires an understanding of different domains, actors, and their objectives, and drivers and barriers to transformational change. We suggest a scale-specific approach, in which agricultural water use is embedded in a larger systems approach (including natural and human systems). This approach is the basis for policy coherence and the design of effective incentive schemes to change agricultural water use behaviour and, therefore, optimise the water we eat.

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for food and bio-energy production, biodiversity conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a mathematical programming model covering the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types in 10 economic regions worldwide at a spatial resolution of three by three degrees, i.e., approximately 300 by 300 km at the equator. It takes regional economic conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields and land and water constraints into account and derives specific land-use patterns for each grid cell. Shadow prices for binding constraints can be used to valuate resources for which in many places no markets exist, especially irrigation water. In this article, we describe the model structure and validation. We apply the model to possible future scenarios up to 2055 and derive required rates of technological change (i.e., yield increase) in agricultural production in order to meet future food demand.