Food security and water sustainability in arid and semiarid regions are threatened by rapid population growth, declining natural resources, and global climate change. Countries in the arid regions compensate meat import by raising domestic livestock with cultivated green fodder, which diminishes lands for other crops and depletes precious water resources. This study presents for the first time an in-depth integrated food water ecosystem (FWEco) nexus modeling on the feasibility of restoring 10% of Kuwait's desert as grazing rangeland to alleviate water consumption from fodder production. Our results showed that revegetating 10% of the country's land with native species could support up to 23% of domestic livestock through natural grazing at optimal coverage (70%) and high productivity, and decrease water consumption by up to 90%. However, depending solely on natural rainfall is unlikely to achieve the optimal coverage. Strategic supplemental irrigation in the fall season (e.g., October and November) is required to maximize vegetation coverage and enhance food security and water sustainability. Significantly, strategic irrigation results in much lower net water consumption because irrigating native species requires much less water than green fodder cultivation. Therefore, revegetating desert lands with native species to restore their natural grazing service can be a sustainable approach to simultaneously improve food security and water sustainability in arid landscapes.

Ecosystem restoration projects (ERPs) are effective for achieving sustainable development goals. However, a nexus perspective has not yet been effectively used to examine the regimes and interconnections between the sectors of agricultural production, ecosystem restoration, and the livelihoods of farmers, which may have constrained the efficacy of ERPs. In this study, the evolution of these different sectors in ecosystem restoration hotspot cases was investigated using a novel nexus perspective, and their interconnections and implications for ecosystem management were determined. Rapid urbanisation, reclamation, and ERPs have profoundly altered landscape patterns and caused significant ecological changes. Prior to 1999, extensive reclamation proved unsustainable because deforestation activities and cultivation on sloping cropland resulted in severe soil loss and ecosystem deterioration, despite providing significant increases in grain productivity and economic profits. Although revegetation practices after 1999 accelerated vegetation regeneration and enhanced soil retention and carbon sequestration, they also resulted in a decline in grain productivity and economic profits during the initial period of implementing ERPs (1999–2008). However, subsequent policy adjustments and the construction of terraced fields have mitigated cropland loss and maintained the grain supply. The nexus perspective was effective in identifying and coordinating relationships among the sectors, and timely policy interventions have transformed the relationships from trade-offs to synergies and provided win–win outcomes. However, the ongoing urbanisation continues to be a challenge for conserving ecosystems and ensuring food security; therefore, further optimised, and targeted strategies are required to balance contrasting goals and maximise co-benefits according to the environmental and socio-economic conditions.

The Ecosystem Restoration Project (ERP) is a critical and urgent practice to achieve the land degradation neutrality (LDN) targets. However, an insufficient understanding of the balance between contrasting sectors of the food-water-ecosystem nexus results in ineffectiveness in supporting complex environmental management (CEM), leading to undesirable ERP failures. The Ordos Plateau case identified the nexus evolution and the non-linear interactions between sectors, which were expected to support adaptive strategy formulations for CEM and achieve win-win outcomes. Revegetation in drylands substantially boosted ecosystem restoration, alleviating soil erosion. However, the excessive reliance on returning cropland to woodland and grassland has caused a significant loss of arable and grazing land. During the initial period of ERPs, this exacerbated decline in grain and meat productivity. In addition, aggressive revegetation activities have also reduced runoff yield and depleted soil water resources. Water scarcity is recognized as the most challenging issue in dryland ecosystem restoration, heavily influencing the interactions between sectors and threatening the long-term sustainability of ERPs. To accommodate for regional water carrying capacity, ERPs should adopt and properly allocate the use of suitable plant species with a proven anti-drought capability and high survival ratios without additional human interventions. In addition, the evolution regimes, driving factors, critical thresholds, and complex feedbacks between the nexus sectors should be fully understood to address the water resources constraints and reconcile trade-offs. This would enable the prevention of ecosystem shifts to undesirable failures and inform timely and cost-effective CEM to achieve the LDN targets.