The aim of this paper is to provide policy-makers with a helpful overview of the technical and economic aspects of water use in agriculture, with particular emphasis on crop and livestock production. Through 2050, in many countries, agriculture will remain an important determinant of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security, even as, over time, the proportion of agricultural revenue in national gross income declines. Water use in agriculture will remain substantial, irrigated areas will expand and competition for water will increase in all sectors. Most likely, overall supplies of land and water will be sufficient to achieve global food production goals in 2050; although poverty and food insecurity will remain pressing challenges in several regions and countries. Thus, the focus of this report is on the regional and national aspects of food security.

Gift

To meet the food demand of a growing global population, agricultural production will have to more than double in this century. Agricultural land expansion combined with yield increases will therefore be required. This thesis investigates whether enough water resources will be available to sustain the future food production. Using a global scale hydrology and crop growth model, the combined effect of climate change and socio economic changes on water scarcity and food production were quantified. The first thing to explore was where water for agriculture is currently extracted. Reservoirs behind large dams are found to be very important for agriculture and contribute around 18% of the total irrigation water today. It is shown however that with current reservoir capacities and irrigation efficiencies, not enough water can be supplied to sustain an increased food production. Irrigation water shortage can lead to a loss of 20% of the irrigated crop production globally, but with important regional differences. Regions particularly at risk include basins in Southern Africa and South Asia, where production losses on irrigated cropland can become over 50%. This means that unless major investments are made towards improving irrigation efficiency and increasing storage capacity, water shortage will put a serious constraint on future food production.

PR | IFPRI3; Land Resource Management for Poverty Reduction | EPTD

To meet the food demand of a growing global population, agricultural production will have to more than double in this century. Agricultural land expansion combined with yield increases will therefore be required. This thesis investigates whether enough water resources will be available to sustain the future food production. Using a global scale hydrology and crop growth model, the combined effect of climate change and socio economic changes on water scarcity and food production were quantified. The first thing to explore was where water for agriculture is currently extracted. Reservoirs behind large dams are found to be very important for agriculture and contribute around 18% of the total irrigation water today. It is shown however that with current reservoir capacities and irrigation efficiencies, not enough water can be supplied to sustain an increased food production. Irrigation water shortage can lead to a loss of 20% of the irrigated crop production globally, but with important regional differences. Regions particularly at risk include basins in Southern Africa and South Asia, where production losses on irrigated cropland can become over 50%. This means that unless major investments are made towards improving irrigation efficiency and increasing storage capacity, water shortage will put a serious constraint on future food production.

PR | EPTD; | IFPRI3; | Journal article