The formation of societies is based on the dynamics of spatial clustering, which optimizes economies of scale in the management of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Energy and food are determinant measures of prosperity. Using the WEF nexus as an indicator, we evaluate the social impacts of the current (2022) conflict and in particular the economic sanctions on Russia. As Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of energy sources, food, and fertilizers, new threats arise by their limitations and the rally of prices. By analyzing related data, we show the dramatic effects on society, and we note that cities, which depend on a wider area for energy and food supplies, are extremely vulnerable. This problem was substantially worsened due to the large-scale urbanization in recent decades, which increased the distance from food sources. We conjecture that the Western elites’ decision to sanction Russia dramatically transformed the global WEF equilibrium, which could probably lead to the collapse of social cohesion.

The formation of societies is based on the dynamics of spatial clustering, which optimizes economies of scale in the management of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Energy and food are determinant measures of prosperity. Using the WEF nexus as an indicator, we evaluate the social impacts of the current (2022) conflict and in particular the economic sanctions on Russia. As Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of energy sources, food, and fertilizers, new threats arise by their limitations and the rally of prices. By analyzing related data, we show the dramatic effects on society, and we note that cities, which depend on a wider area for energy and food supplies, are extremely vulnerable. This problem was substantially worsened due to the large-scale urbanization in recent decades, which increased the distance from food sources. We conjecture that the Western elites’ decision to sanction Russia dramatically transformed the global WEF equilibrium, which could probably lead to the collapse of social cohesion.

The formation of societies is based on the dynamics of spatial clustering, which optimizes economies of scale in the management of the water&ndash:energy&ndash:food (WEF) nexus. Energy and food are determinant measures of prosperity. Using the WEF nexus as an indicator, we evaluate the social impacts of the current (2022) conflict and in particular the economic sanctions on Russia. As Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of energy sources, food, and fertilizers, new threats arise by their limitations and the rally of prices. By analyzing related data, we show the dramatic effects on society, and we note that cities, which depend on a wider area for energy and food supplies, are extremely vulnerable. This problem was substantially worsened due to the large-scale urbanization in recent decades, which increased the distance from food sources. We conjecture that the Western elites&rsquo: decision to sanction Russia dramatically transformed the global WEF equilibrium, which could probably lead to the collapse of social cohesion.

Civil conflict began in Ethiopia in November 2020 and has reportedly caused major disrup tions in access to health services, food, and related critical services, in addition to the direct impacts of the conflict on health and well-being. However, the population-level impacts of the conflict have not yet been systematically quantified. We analyze high frequency phone surveys conducted by the World Bank, which included measures of access to basic ser vices, to estimate the impact of the first phase of the war (November 2020 to May 2021) on households in Tigray. After controlling for sample selection, a difference-in-differences approach is used to estimate causal effects of the conflict on population access to health services, food, and water and sanitation. Inverse probability weighting is used to adjust for sample attrition. The conflict has increased the share of respondents who report that they were unable to access needed health services by 35 percentage points (95% CI: 14–55 pp) and medicine by 8 pp (95% CI:2–15 pp). It has also increased the share of households unable to purchase staple foods by 26 pp (95% CI:7–45 pp). The share of households unable to access water did not increase, although the percentage able to purchase soap declined by 17 pp (95% CI: 1–32 pp). We document significant heterogeneity across popula tion groups, with disproportionate effects on the poor, on rural populations, on households with undernourished children, and those living in communities without health facilities. These significant disruptions in access to basic services likely underestimate the true bur den of conflict in the affected population, given that the conflict has continued beyond the survey period, and that worse-affected households may have higher rates of non-response. Documented spatial and household-level heterogeneity in the impact of the conflict may help guide rapid post-conflict responses.

Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

DSGD; PIM | CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) | Non-PR | IFPRI1; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; CRP2 | Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.

The safety of the water–energy–food (WEF) system in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is critical to the sustainable development of resources, the economy, and society in the region. This paper uses the projection pursuit model of a real-code accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) to comprehensively evaluate the WEF system security of the CPEC for the period 2000–2016. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the projection value of the WEF system was reduced from 2.61 to 0.53, and the overall system security showed a downward trend. Moreover, the CPEC increased by 6.13 × 10⁷ people, resulting in a rapid decrease in per capita water resources and decreased security of the water resources subsystem. With the rising social and economic development in recent years, the per capita energy consumption has likewise risen, leading to a decline in the energy subsystem. At the same time, the per capita grain output in the study area has increased from 185 to 205 kg, and the safety of the food subsystem has been enhanced. However, the significant increase in irrigated areas (from 1.82 × 10¹⁰ to 1.93 × 10¹⁰ hectares) has further highlighted the contradiction between the supply and demand of surface water resources, and the number of tube wells increased by 7.23 × 10⁵, resulting in the consumption of a large amount of electricity and diesel resources. The water–energy (WE) subsystem also became less safe. With the implementation of water resources management policies over the past few decades, the proportion of agricultural water consumption dropped from 95.06% in 2000 to 93.97% in 2016, and the safety of the water–food (WF) subsystem increased. Unfortunately, agricultural irrigation consumes a large amount of power resources, leading to a reduction in the security of the energy–food (EF) subsystem. The research results from the present study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of WEF systems across the CPEC region.

The safety of the water&ndash:energy&ndash:food (WEF) system in the China&ndash:Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is critical to the sustainable development of resources, the economy, and society in the region. This paper uses the projection pursuit model of a real-code accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) to comprehensively evaluate the WEF system security of the CPEC for the period 2000&ndash:2016. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the projection value of the WEF system was reduced from 2.61 to 0.53, and the overall system security showed a downward trend. Moreover, the CPEC increased by 6.13 &times: 107 people, resulting in a rapid decrease in per capita water resources and decreased security of the water resources subsystem. With the rising social and economic development in recent years, the per capita energy consumption has likewise risen, leading to a decline in the energy subsystem. At the same time, the per capita grain output in the study area has increased from 185 to 205 kg, and the safety of the food subsystem has been enhanced. However, the significant increase in irrigated areas (from 1.82 &times: 1010 to 1.93 &times: 1010 hectares) has further highlighted the contradiction between the supply and demand of surface water resources, and the number of tube wells increased by 7.23 &times: 105, resulting in the consumption of a large amount of electricity and diesel resources. The water&ndash:energy (WE) subsystem also became less safe. With the implementation of water resources management policies over the past few decades, the proportion of agricultural water consumption dropped from 95.06% in 2000 to 93.97% in 2016, and the safety of the water&ndash:food (WF) subsystem increased. Unfortunately, agricultural irrigation consumes a large amount of power resources, leading to a reduction in the security of the energy&ndash:food (EF) subsystem. The research results from the present study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of WEF systems across the CPEC region.

The safety of the water–energy–food (WEF) system in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is critical to the sustainable development of resources, the economy, and society in the region. This paper uses the projection pursuit model of a real-code accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) to comprehensively evaluate the WEF system security of the CPEC for the period 2000–2016. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the projection value of the WEF system was reduced from 2.61 to 0.53, and the overall system security showed a downward trend. Moreover, the CPEC increased by 6.13 × 10⁷ people, resulting in a rapid decrease in per capita water resources and decreased security of the water resources subsystem. With the rising social and economic development in recent years, the per capita energy consumption has likewise risen, leading to a decline in the energy subsystem. At the same time, the per capita grain output in the study area has increased from 185 to 205 kg, and the safety of the food subsystem has been enhanced. However, the significant increase in irrigated areas (from 1.82 × 10¹⁰ to 1.93 × 10¹⁰ hectares) has further highlighted the contradiction between the supply and demand of surface water resources, and the number of tube wells increased by 7.23 × 10⁵, resulting in the consumption of a large amount of electricity and diesel resources. The water–energy (WE) subsystem also became less safe. With the implementation of water resources management policies over the past few decades, the proportion of agricultural water consumption dropped from 95.06% in 2000 to 93.97% in 2016, and the safety of the water–food (WF) subsystem increased. Unfortunately, agricultural irrigation consumes a large amount of power resources, leading to a reduction in the security of the energy–food (EF) subsystem. The research results from the present study could provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of WEF systems across the CPEC region.