Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011–2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m.

A case study is presented that implements two numerical models for simulating a 30-year pump-and-treat (PAT) operation conducted at a large contaminated site for which high-resolution data sets are available. A Markov chain based stochastic method is used to conditionally generate the realizations with random distribution of heterogeneity for the Tucson International Airport Area (TIAA) federal Superfund site in the USA. The fields were conditioned to data collected for 245 boreholes drilled at the site. Both MT3DMS and the advanced random-walk particle method (RWhet) were used to simulate the PAT-based mass removal process. The results show that both MT3DMS and RWhet represent the measured data reasonably, with root mean square error (RMSE) less than 0.03. The use of fine grids and the total-variation-diminishing method (TVD) limited the effects of numerical dispersion for MT3DMS. However, the effects of numerical dispersion were observed when compared to the simulations produced with RWhet using a larger number of particles, which provided more accurate results with RMSE diminishing from 0.027 to 0.024 to 0.020 for simulations with 1, 20, and 50 particles, respectively. The computational time increased with more particles used in the model, but was still much less than the time required for MT3DMS, which is an advantage of RWhet. By showing the results using both methods, this study provides guidance for simulating long-term PAT systems. This work will improve understanding of contaminant transport and plume persistence, and in turn will enhance site characterization and site management for contaminated sites with large plumes.