The risk of introducing weeds to new areas through grain (cereals, oilseeds and pulses) intended for processing or consumption is typically considered less than that from seed or plants for planting. However, within the range of end uses for grain, weed risk varies significantly and should not be ignored. In this paper, we discuss pathway risk analysis as a framework to examine the association of weed seeds with grain commodities throughout the production process from field to final end use, and present inspection sampling data for grain crops commonly imported to Canada. In the field, weed seed contamination of grain crops is affected by factors such as country of origin, climate, biogeography and production and harvesting practices. As it moves toward export, grain is typically cleaned at a series of elevators and the effectiveness and degree of cleaning are influenced by grain size, shape and density as well as by grade requirements. In cases where different grain lots are blended, uncertainty may be introduced with respect to the species and numbers of weed seed contaminants. During transport and storage, accidental spills and cross-contamination among conveyances may occur. At the point of import to Canada, inspection sampling data show that grain shipments contain a variety of contaminants including seeds of regulated weeds and species that represent new introductions. However, grain cleaning and processing methods tailored to end use at destination also affect the presence and viability of weed seeds. For example, grains that are milled or crushed for human use present a lower risk of introducing weed seeds to new environments than grains that undergo minimal or no processing for livestock feed, or screenings that are produced as a by-product of grain cleaning. Pathway risk analysis allows each of these stages to be evaluated in order to characterize the overall risk of introducing weeds with particular commodities, and guide regulatory decisions about trade and plant health.

The risk of introducing weeds to new areas through grain (cereals, oilseeds and pulses) intended for processing or consumption is typically considered less than that from seed or plants for planting. However, within the range of end uses for grain, weed risk varies significantly and should not be ignored. In this paper, we discuss pathway risk analysis as a framework to examine the association of weed seeds with grain commodities throughout the production process from field to final end use, and present inspection sampling data for grain crops commonly imported to Canada. In the field, weed seed contamination of grain crops is affected by factors such as country of origin, climate, biogeography and production and harvesting practices. As it moves toward export, grain is typically cleaned at a series of elevators and the effectiveness and degree of cleaning are influenced by grain size, shape and density as well as by grade requirements. In cases where different grain lots are blended, uncertainty may be introduced with respect to the species and numbers of weed seed contaminants. During transport and storage, accidental spills and cross-contamination among conveyances may occur. At the point of import to Canada, inspection sampling data show that grain shipments contain a variety of contaminants including seeds of regulated weeds and species that represent new introductions. However, grain cleaning and processing methods tailored to end use at destination also affect the presence and viability of weed seeds. For example, grains that are milled or crushed for human use present a lower risk of introducing weed seeds to new environments than grains that undergo minimal or no processing for livestock feed, or screenings that are produced as a by-product of grain cleaning. Pathway risk analysis allows each of these stages to be evaluated in order to characterize the overall risk of introducing weeds with particular commodities, and guide regulatory decisions about trade and plant health.

The number of plant pests that may be transported to new areas with international trade is too great for subjecting all of them to a full scale pest risk assessment. There is therefore a need for a quick risk assessment procedure that also ranks the pests according to their risk. The FinnPRIO model can be used to assess the risk of alien plant pests for Finland. It follows the basic structure of a full scale pest risk assessment, i.e. it can be used to separately estimate the probabilities of entry, establishment (including spread), and the likely impacts. The model also includes a section for assessing preventability and controllability of a pest invasion. The model consists of multiple-choice questions with answer options yielding a different number of points. For each question the most likely answer option and the plausible minimum and maximum options are chosen. The total risk score is simulated using a PERT distribution, providing a scale of potential risk for each pest and indicating the level of uncertainty associated with the assessment. The model is accompanied by a guide for the interpretation of the questions and answer options. The model’s functionality has been tested through simulations, and it has been validated by comparing pest rankings produced using the model to those obtained in expert workshops. To date, 95 pests have been assessed with the model. The results indicate that the model is well capable of differentiating pests based on their estimated risk.

2016

Abstract Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH) performed a quantitative analysis of the risk posed by the Flavescence dorée phytoplasma (FDp) in the EU territory. Three scenarios were analysed, one with current measures in place (scenario A0), one designed to improve grapevine propagation material phytosanitary status (scenario A1) and one with reinforced eradication and containment (scenario A2). The potential for entry is limited, FDp being almost non‐existent outside the EU. FDp and its major vector, Scaphoideus titanus, have already established over large parts of the EU and have the potential to establish in a large fraction of the currently unaffected EU territory. With the current measures in place (A0), spread of FDp is predicted to continue with a progression of between a few and ca 20 newly infested NUTS 2 regions during the next 10 years, illustrating the limitations of the current control measures against spread. FDp spread is predicted to be roughly similar between scenarios A1 and A2, but more restricted than under scenario A0. However, even with reinforced control scenarios, stabilisation or reduction in the number of infested NUTS 2 regions has only relatively low probability. Under scenario A0, FDp has a 0.5–1% impact on the overall EU grapes and wine production, reflecting the effectiveness of the current control measures against impact. Under both scenarios A1 and A2, FDp impact is predicted to be reduced, by approximately one‐third (A1) to two‐thirds (A2) as compared to A0, but the associated uncertainties are large. The generalised use of hot water treatment for planting material produced in infected zones has the most important contribution to FDp impact reduction in scenario A1 and has high feasibility. Both increased eradication and containment measures contribute to impact reduction under scenario A2 but the overall feasibility is lower.

Abstract The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest risk assessment on Ditylenchus destructor, the potato rot nematode, for the EU. It focused the assessment of entry, establishment, spread and impact on two crops: potato (Solanum tuberosum) and tulip (Tulipa spp.). The main pathways for entry of D. destructor into the EU and for spread of this nematode within the EU are plants for planting, including seed potatoes and flower bulbs. These commodities are also the main targets for the assessment of the impact. A modelling approach was used to quantitatively estimate entry, spread and impact. Literature and expert judgement were used to estimate model parameters, taking into account uncertainty. A baseline scenario with current pest‐specific phytosanitary regulations was compared with alternative scenarios without those specific regulations or with additional risk reduction options. Further information is provided on the host range of D. destructor and on survival of the nematode in soil in the absence of hosts. The Panel concludes that the entry of D. destructor with planting material from third countries is small compared to the yearly intra‐EU spread of this nematode with planting material. Changes in pest‐specific regulations have little influence on entry of the pest as other non‐specific regulation already lead to a good level of protection against the introduction of the nematode into the pest risk assessment (PRA) area. It is also concluded that the whole PRA area is suitable for establishment of D. destructor, but there is insufficient information to make a statement on the persistence of newly introduced populations in the entire PRA area. Impacts of this nematode on the quantity and quality of potato are considered negligible. The impact on flower bulb production in the EU is considered as very low.