Armenia : A Cloudy Outlook
2015
World Bank
Economic growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2013 and 2.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2014. The slowdown is the result of a number of factors such as slackening foreign direct investment (FDI), dependence on a limited number of commodity exports, and a difficult external economic environment. Consumer lending and remittances continued to support private consumption, but under-execution of government spending suppressed aggregate demand. On the supply side, the mining and energy sectors performed particularly badly, offsetting positive developments in manufacturing. Year-on-year inflation reached close to zero in August 2014, following a long decline since energy price increases caused it to flare up in July 2013. Twelve-month inflation slowed to 0.8 percent in August, well below the central bank s 2.5 5.5 percent target range. The decline came despite new electricity price increases in the same month. On the whole, second-round price pressures were minimal. Core inflation, excluding prices for food and fuel, was being held below headline inflation in the second half of the year.
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