Armenia : A Cloudy Outlook

World Bank

Armenia : A Cloudy Outlook

2015

World Bank

Economic growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2013 and 2.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2014. The slowdown is the result of a number of factors such as slackening foreign direct investment (FDI), dependence on a limited number of commodity exports, and a difficult external economic environment. Consumer lending and remittances continued to support private consumption, but under-execution of government spending suppressed aggregate demand. On the supply side, the mining and energy sectors performed particularly badly, offsetting positive developments in manufacturing. Year-on-year inflation reached close to zero in August 2014, following a long decline since energy price increases caused it to flare up in July 2013. Twelve-month inflation slowed to 0.8 percent in August, well below the central bank s 2.5 5.5 percent target range. The decline came despite new electricity price increases in the same month. On the whole, second-round price pressures were minimal. Core inflation, excluding prices for food and fuel, was being held below headline inflation in the second half of the year.

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accounting agricultural commodities agriculture buffers commercial banks deflation depreciation developing countries development strategy economic growth elasticity exchange rate expenditure external debt extreme poverty financial market food prices free trade free trade agreements gross domestic product import imports income income tax inflation interest rates international trade metals natural resources pension pensions population growth poverty reduction private debt production technology public debt remittances repayment returns structural unemployment surplus telecommunications terms of trade uncertainty working capital world trade organization wto

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Supply side; Treaty; Global interest; Tax credits; Debt holdings; Mineral prices; Disbursements; Current account deficit; Tax exemptions; Import tariffs; Trade shock; Inflation targeting regime; Aggregate demand; General equilibrium; Economic developments; Commercial bank loan; Domestic liquidity; Accumulation of reserves; Trade balance; Market efficiency; Profit margin; Remittance; Equity issuance; Oil; Trading partners; Consumption baskets; Deficit financing; Futures; Gdp; Tranche; Oil prices; Global demand; Export market; Consumption goods; Short-term external debt; Price hike; Weights; Consumer price index; Credit rating; Holding; Open market; Trade policy; Currency; Tariff increase; Labor market; Slowdowns; Short-term debt; Treasury; External financing; Exporters; Import costs; Expenditures; Nominal wages; Labor productivity; Total external debt; Cpi; Currency mismatches; Justice systems; Gradual depreciation; Labor force; Price indexes; Economic activity; Loan portfolios; External shocks; Basis point; Total exports; Inflationary pressures; Consumption spending; Interest rate; Central bank; Reserves; Npl; Import tariff; International reserves; Long-term loans; Beneficiaries; Fixed investments; Return; Holdings; Trading; Capital flows; Investment bank; Tax rate; Tax increase; Annual growth; Government guarantees; Shortfall; Fiscal deficit; Development policy; Target range; Geopolitical tensions; Economic crisis; Export growth; Competitiveness; Real gdp; Government deficit; Domestic demand; Customs union; Commercial bank; Nominal exchange rate; Registration fees; Long-term obligations; Trading partner; Transparency; Liberalization; Domestic capacity constraints; Consumption basket; Unemployment rate; Foreign exchange reserves; Consolidation; Basis points; Foreign exchange; Domestic debt; Slowdown; Human development; Central depository; International markets; Private consumption; Futures markets; Tariff policy; Grace period; Core inflation; Economic policy; Eurobond; Real export; Output gap; Interest payments; Fiscal balance; Real import; Monetary policy; Current account balance; Current account; Price increases; Turnover; Import growth; Government spending; Investment opportunities; Fiscal policy; Market efficiencies; Global economy; Brokerage; Fiscal efforts; Inflationary pressure; Structural reforms; Global markets; Financial markets; Domestic investors; Exchange rate policies; Treasury bill rate; Free trade agreement; Open market operations; Foreign investors; Commodity prices; Bonds; Real export growth; World trade; Pension system; Credit expansion; Development bank; Food price; Macroeconomic environment; Debt service; Treasury bill; Trade patterns; Flexible exchange rate; Nonperforming loans; Consumption growth; Price increase; Foreign direct investment; Growth rates; Inflation targeting; Recession; Trade impact; Government securities; Monetary fund; Tariff increases; Price dynamics; Capacity constraints; Export diversification; Net imports; External demand; Capital markets; Trade restrictiveness; Macroeconomic risk

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Armenia : A Cloudy Outlook

2015

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